[Initial Reaction] 'Samyunron' Replaced by 'Third Candidate Theory'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] As expected, elections are unpredictable. Until the general election last April, Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, had a solid position. The phrase 'Eodaenak (Anyway, the leader is Lee Nak-yeon)' was coined because he was the most likely next presidential candidate.

He lightly defeated former Future United Party (now People Power Party) leader Hwang Kyo-ahn in Jongno and led his party to a sweeping victory in the general election, proving he was the dominant force. In the Democratic Party convention last August, some who argued that Lee should not run were concerned about potential damage if he took the forefront. However, many believed he needed to show leadership as party leader, and he became the undisputed face of the party with unstoppable momentum.

The situation changed drastically in just a few months. The period when only Lee and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung appeared in polls was simply because there were no suitable candidates among the People Power Party. From the conservative perspective, the emergence of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl provided a breakthrough, and public opinion gradually, then rapidly, shifted. People generally dislike politicians and have responded positively to new figures. Former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn was such a case, and Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, also used his background as a doctor and successful businessman as a stepping stone into politics.

Although the Democratic Party secured an overwhelming number of seats in last year’s general election, the vote share by constituency and party was only about 8 percentage points higher at 49.9% compared to Future United Party’s 41.5%. The conservative base remains solid.

Of course, whether Prosecutor General Yoon will actually enter the race remains uncertain. Nevertheless, from the Democratic Party’s perspective, which once seemed ahead, the possibility of being overturned at any time is a source of anxiety. To make matters worse, Lee Nak-yeon’s early-year pardon proposal appears to have backfired. President Moon Jae-in’s New Year press conference remark that "pardons without public consensus could rather harm unity" seemed directed at Lee. This has left a significant and not easily recoverable wound.

This is the background for the growing support for a third candidate within the ruling party. Those who claim to be 'pro-Roh' and 'pro-Moon' want a candidate who can inherit the spirit of the two former presidents and secure victory. The choice of who to endorse for that position may change. Asia Economy, based on a poll commissioned from WinG Korea Consulting, cited Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae, former Presidential Chief of Staff Lim Jong-seok, former lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum, lawmaker Lee Kwang-jae, and Minister of Unification Lee In-young as examples. The greatest strength of a third candidate is the expectation of a dramatic turnaround through a change of players, and some can emphasize 'youth.'

Lee Nak-yeon is renewing his determination by positioning himself as a crisis solver with the 'COVID-19 profit-sharing system.' Governor Lee Jae-myung has emerged as the strongest ruling party candidate, waving the flag of basic income. In any case, the beneficiaries of healthy competition in politics are the people. We wish them good luck.