[Biden Era] Revival of 'Multilateral Alliance Diplomacy'... Fiercer Camp Competition Surrounding the Korean Peninsula

A Major Shift in the Diplomatic Paradigm of Korea-US-Japan Predicted

The inauguration of the Joe Biden administration marks an opportunity for a paradigm shift in South Korean diplomacy. This is because the era of the Trump administration's 'America First' diplomacy is coming to an end, and an environment favoring 'multilateral alliance diplomacy' is expected to emerge. A certain degree of transformation is inevitable not only in South Korea's bilateral diplomacy with Japan, China, and Russia but also in the 'Korean Peninsula Peace Process' with North Korea.

◆The diplomatic framework of the Biden administration = Biden appointed the expected figures to his foreign and security team. He named Tony Blinken as Secretary of State and Jake Sullivan, known as a diplomatic prodigy in his 40s, as National Security Advisor at the White House. To open a new chapter in North Korea-U.S. relations behind the scenes, he nominated William Burns, chairman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as CIA Director, signaling his intention to completely overturn Trump's unilateralism.

In this regard, South Korea has room to expand its maneuvering space in the bilateral relationship with the U.S. In particular, the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing between South Korea and the U.S. is likely to be finalized at a level requested by South Korea. Professor Kim Hyun-wook of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy predicted, "Biden will try to quickly resolve the SMA issue as he begins his term," adding, "He is expected to maintain the basic stance that the wartime operational control transfer requires sufficient verification stages."

Regarding the strong confrontation between South Korea and Japan, President Biden is expected to take a more active mediating role than former President Trump. However, it seems unlikely that Biden will pursue a diplomatic strategy biased toward either South Korea or Japan. Research Fellow Choi Eun-mi of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies analyzed, "While U.S. involvement to improve South Korea-Japan relations is anticipated, fundamental improvement seems difficult due to significant gaps in issue recognition and resolution approaches among policymakers in both countries."

Meanwhile, if U.S.-China conflicts continue into the Biden administration, China is likely to engage in traditional allied diplomacy to strengthen its relationship with Russia. This could negatively affect President Moon Jae-in's 'Korean Peninsula Peace Process,' which hopes for progress based on the momentum of resuming North Korea-U.S. dialogue. Russia is also expected to adopt an opportunistic strategy, seeking gaps to gain a more advantageous position amid U.S.-China tensions, making the diplomatic competition among neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula potentially fiercer than ever. Director Kim Jun-hyung of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy stated, "Although the Cold War ended 30 years ago, the confrontation between the North-China-Russia bloc and the South Korea-U.S.-Japan bloc has not been completely resolved," adding, "(The South Korean government) faces a crossroads whether to bear the costs on the front line of U.S.-China conflicts or to play a buffering role at the boundary."

◆The dependent variable in North Korea-U.S. relations is inter-Korean relations = The mainstream Democratic Party's perception of North Korea has not changed significantly from the 'strategic patience' policy during the Obama era, but the stance remains that the U.S. will not offer rewards first without North Korea's preemptive denuclearization measures. Therefore, while the strategic approach of diplomatic and international cooperation to resolve issues is clear, the outlook does not appear optimistic. Currently, North Korea is solidifying its status as a nuclear-armed state and intends to shift the negotiation framework from denuclearization to 'nuclear arms reduction.' In other words, North Korea's demand for nuclear arms reduction and the U.S.'s demand for denuclearization directly conflict, making it highly likely that North Korea-U.S. dialogue will drift even in the Biden era. Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "(North Korea) will pursue a strong endurance strategy by advocating internal cohesion and ideological unity that does not yield to sanctions, self-reliance, and the establishment of a total mobilization system for its people." The emphasis on self-reliance alongside military strengthening at the recent party congress can be interpreted in this context.

As the North Korean version of 'strategic patience' materializes, inter-Korean relations are becoming increasingly dependent on North Korea-U.S. relations. North Korea has closed its channels with the South by dismissing persistent South Korean proposals for inter-Korean cooperation as "non-essential issues." Instead, it is more likely to resume offensive actions toward the South to enhance its negotiating power in North Korea-U.S. talks. Jeong Seong-jang, a research fellow at the Wilson Center and senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, stated, "It has become virtually impossible to lure North Korea with cards such as quarantine cooperation, individual tourism, and humanitarian aid," adding, "Rather than the unrealistic and idealistic goal of North Korean denuclearization, we need a big picture that includes the gradual reduction of North Korea's nuclear capabilities and easing of sanctions, persuading North Korea together with the international community including the U.S. and China to promote inter-Korean relations improvement."