[Opinion] Kim Jong-un Regime Reaffirms Status as Nuclear-Armed Military Power

Amid growing interest in changes to the U.S. policy toward the Korean Peninsula with the upcoming inauguration of the Joe Biden administration next week, Chairman Kim Jong-un declared North Korea's foreign military policy direction in his report speech at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party last week. Despite some expectations that North Korea's external hardline stance might soften due to worsening economic difficulties, the policy declared by Chairman Kim showed no difference from the past. The policy of continuously strengthening nuclear forces to "subdue and compel the greatest enemy, the United States" was reaffirmed.

One difference from the past is the addition of a plan to significantly modernize conventional military forces alongside nuclear forces. Goals such as the refinement and high-performance enhancement of the North Korean military's armament system, development of military reconnaissance satellites, and unmanned reconnaissance drones were presented. Along with this, Chairman Kim warned the South Korean government to halt the enhancement of advanced military capabilities and joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises to improve inter-Korean relations. This implies that if South Korea wants to improve inter-Korean relations, it must accept North Korea's conventional military superiority over the South and give up strengthening its defense capabilities, drawing attention to how the South Korean government will respond.

The international community is focusing on the possibility that North Korea may carry out provocative acts such as nuclear tests or long-range missile launches following the inauguration of the Biden administration next week.

Since the first North Korean nuclear crisis in early 1993, North Korea has a history of carrying out significant provocative actions whenever a new U.S. administration takes office, either to attract U.S. attention, to tame the new government, or to break existing agreements and negotiate a more favorable new deal with the new regime. Just two months after the Bill Clinton administration took office in March 1993, North Korea refused nuclear inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and declared its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), triggering the first North Korean nuclear crisis. Around the time the George W. Bush administration took office in early 2001, North Korea violated the 1994 North Korean nuclear Geneva Agreement by secretly starting uranium enrichment facilities, leading to the collapse of the Geneva Agreement and the second North Korean nuclear crisis.

Three months after the Barack Obama administration took office, in April 2009, North Korea test-fired a long-range missile with a range of 6,700 km aimed at the U.S. mainland. One month after the Donald Trump administration took office, in February 2017, North Korea test-fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a range of 5,500 km developed to target the U.S. military base in Guam, followed by intercontinental ballistic missile tests and the sixth nuclear test, triggering the third North Korean nuclear crisis.

Considering these past precedents, the possibility remains that North Korea may take provocative actions immediately after the Biden administration's inauguration to seize the situation. It could test-fire new intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine-launched missiles unveiled at last October's military parade, or resume nuclear tests that have been suspended since 2017.

Regardless of what provocative actions North Korea takes, the U.S. is unlikely to be surprised or feel threatened anew. However, such actions would provoke a hardline stance from the Biden administration toward North Korea and make the North Korea-U.S. summit that North Korea desires even more distant, making it a highly reckless act of self-harm for North Korea, which is pressed by economic difficulties. Therefore, it will not be an easy choice for North Korea to repeat the provocative actions it has taken during every U.S. administration change over the past 28 years.

Lee Yong-jun, Former North Korean Nuclear Ambassador and Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs