[AK Survey] Ahn Leads Park Across All Ages and Regions in Seoul Except for Those in Their 40s

Seoul Mayor Candidate Hypothetical Head-to-Head
Ahn Cheol-soo 47.4% vs Park Young-sun 37%
Preference Within Supporters: Ahn 81.8% · Park 75.5%
People Power Party Cohesion Ahead of Democratic Party
Park Young-sun vs Oh Se-hoon·Na Kyung-won 'Race Within Margin of Error'

[Asia Economy Reporters Lim Chun-han and Jeon Jin-young] If the Seoul mayoral by-election proceeds with the currently declared or likely candidates, it appears that Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, has the highest chance of becoming the final winner. In a hypothetical matchup against Park Young-sun, Minister of SMEs and Startups, who is the ruling party’s leading candidate in approval ratings, Ahn led by a wide margin across almost all age groups and regions.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll on June 2-3 targeting 1,006 eligible voters aged 18 or older residing in Seoul (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked, “If Minister Park and Leader Ahn run in this Seoul mayoral by-election, whom would you support?” 47.4% chose Ahn, while 37.0% chose Park. The difference was 10.4 percentage points. Those who had no preferred candidate or were unsure accounted for 10.5%, and support for other candidates was 5.1%.

Ahn led Park in all gender and regional categories. Notably, Ahn’s support among men was 53.0%, higher than 42.2% among women. When Seoul was divided into five districts, Ahn’s lead was evident in all areas. By age group, Park led only in her 40s with 50.0% support compared to Ahn’s 40.1%, while Ahn led in all other age groups.

Among Democratic Party supporters, Park received 75.5% support and Ahn 15.0%, whereas among People Power Party supporters, Ahn received 81.8% and Park 5.0%, indicating somewhat lower consolidation among Democratic supporters compared to People Power supporters. Among the politically unaffiliated, Ahn garnered 49.2% support and Park 19.1%.

On the other hand, when Park faced other opposition candidates, the outcome was difficult to predict. The hypothetical one-on-one matchups between Park Young-sun and Na Kyung-won, and between Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon, both resulted in races within the margin of error. Park led Na Kyung-won by 40.1% to 39.8%, within the margin of error. By age, Park had higher support in the 40s (54.5%) and 50s (44.7%), while Na Kyung-won led in the 60s (48.9%) and 70+ age groups (52.9%). Party loyalty was also clearly reflected: 80.2% of voters supporting the Democratic Party backed Park, while 82.8% of People Power Party supporters backed Na Kyung-won. Among the unaffiliated, Na Kyung-won led with 39.0% over Park’s 20.7%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points.

Former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon led Park within the margin of error. Oh received 43.9% support, while Park had 38.7%, a 5.2 percentage point lead for Oh. By age, Park had higher support in the 40s (53.2%) and 50s (43.6%), while Oh led in the 60s (51.4%) and 70+ age groups (54.4%). By party, among Democratic Party supporters, Park had 77.3% support and Oh 12.1%, while among People Power Party supporters, Oh had 84.9% and Park 5.0%. Among the unaffiliated, Oh led with 45.5% support compared to Park’s 18.0%.

This survey was conducted on June 2-3 targeting eligible voters aged 18 or older residing in Seoul, with a total response rate of 6.7% and 1,006 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of November 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.