[The Editors' Verdict] Is China's Push to Join the CPTPP Genuine?

Roundtable on Japanese Government's Export Regulations, Professor Jeong In-kyo, Inha University. / Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Last week, President-elect Joe Biden mentioned the direction of trade policy after taking office during a press conference. He stated that trade policies would be conducted to benefit American workers, and that environmental and labor experts would be involved in future trade agreement negotiations to realize the Democratic Party platform.

Reporters asked about the Biden administration's stance on joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed on the 15th, a day before the press conference, and rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). However, the administration avoided direct answers with vague responses, saying they would closely review future trade policies.

Five days after the RCEP signing, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on the 20th, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked, "The global economy is like the Pacific Ocean beside us. A thousand waterways converge into the four seas," and expressed that "China welcomes the signing of RCEP and will actively consider joining the CPTPP."

It is noteworthy that the Chinese leader, who has been reserved about Biden's election, made trade policy remarks at the APEC summit that could provoke the United States. In this context, Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, visited South Korea and Japan.

From China's perspective, which hoped for the re-election of President Trump rather than Biden, it appears to be taking advantage of the U.S. administration transition period to establish a global trade order favorable to itself. China likely views the smooth operation of the globally interconnected Global Value Chain (GVC) as essential for economic normalization and sees this as an opportunity to bring back countries that lined up with the U.S. under Trump's tariff onslaught to a pro-China stance.

However, it seems unlikely that China will easily achieve its goals. Although minor adjustments may occur, there appears to be consensus that the current Trump administration's tough stance on China will largely continue under Biden's presidency.

According to a Pew Research survey, anti-China sentiment among the American public has already exceeded 70%, and the Biden administration is well aware that this sentiment will influence not only the presidential election but also upcoming Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections.

Traditionally, the Democratic Party adopts protectionism as part of its platform, so it is unlikely to miss the opportunity to reclaim pro-labor policies and protectionism lost to Trump.

Moreover, the composition of the policy evaluation teams formed as part of the presidential transition committee provides a rough idea of the policy direction toward China. Notably, experts well-versed in U.S.-China trade conflicts, such as former White House National Economic Council official Jason Miller, University of Miami professor Kathleen Claussen, and Harvard Law School professor Mark Wu, are heavily included in evaluation teams for the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Team leader Miller, a former official, led reshoring and manufacturing revival efforts for U.S. companies during the Obama administration. Professor Claussen is a trade negotiation expert, and Professor Wu, who is of Chinese descent and served as a USTR deputy, has referred to China as "China, Inc.," highlighting that the current Chinese economy is a joint product of the Chinese Communist Party and state-owned enterprises.

Contrary to popular belief, China did not lead the RCEP negotiations. To join the CPTPP, China must undertake significant reforms of its non-market economy system. Nevertheless, China's emphasis on playing the role of a global trade protector seems largely aimed at sowing division among allies, as the Biden administration has indicated it will check China through cooperation with allied countries rather than Trump's confrontational approach.

South Korea was the first country to have a phone call between its leader and President-elect Biden. The issue now is China's offensive. Following State Councilor Yang Jiechi's visit to South Korea in August, Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited as well. In this situation, the South Korean government's foreign policy, which is pushing for President Xi Jinping's visit to South Korea, becomes all the more intriguing.

Jung In-kyo, Professor, Department of International Trade, Inha University