[AK Survey] Opposition Seoul Mayoral Candidates, Oh Se-hoon Ranks 1st in Suitability... Ahn Cheol-soo Follows

Asia Economy Commissioned 'Seoul Mayor Candidate Suitability Survey' Results
Oh Se-hoon 17.6% > Ahn Cheol-soo 15.9% > Geum Tae-seop 8.4% Order

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] In a preference survey for the opposition candidates in the Seoul mayoral by-election scheduled for April next year, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon ranked first. Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, came in second with a narrow gap of just 1.7 percentage points behind former Mayor Oh, showing a de facto two-horse race. It is also noteworthy that former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, who recently left the Democratic Party, ranked third.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 1st to the 2nd, surveying 1,000 Seoul citizens, 17.6% responded that former Mayor Oh is the most suitable opposition candidate for Seoul mayor. Ahn followed closely with 15.9%, and former lawmaker Geum recorded 8.4%. Other candidates included Yoon Hee-sook of the People Power Party (6.5%), Cho Eun-hee, Seocho District Mayor (6.2%), and Kim Dong-yeon, Deputy Prime Minister for Economy (5.1%). The response of 'no suitable candidate' was also high at 28.1%.

The fact that former Mayor Oh and Ahn leader both secured the top positions seems to be due to their advantageous recognition.

Former Mayor Oh led Ahn in preference among both men (17.4%) and women (17.8%), with particularly strong support from women. Among male respondents, the gap between the two was only 0.2 percentage points, but among female respondents, the difference was 3 percentage points. By age group, preference for former Mayor Oh was higher in all age groups except for those in their 18-29s and 40s.

Ahn led former Mayor Oh in preference among men and women in their 20s and 40s. Among men in their 20s, Ahn recorded 22.6% and former Mayor Oh 21%, while among men in their 40s, Ahn had 19.1% and former Mayor Oh 11.5%, widening the gap. Among women in their 20s, Ahn had 9.6% and former Mayor Oh 6.3%, and among women in their 40s, Ahn had 12.8% and former Mayor Oh 9%.

However, results varied by gender among the elderly in their 70s. Men in their 70s preferred Ahn (23.5%), while women in their 70s supported former Mayor Oh (40.8%).

By region, in the northeastern area (Gangbuk-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Nowon-gu, Dobong-gu, Dongdaemun-gu, Seongdong-gu, Seongbuk-gu, Jungnang-gu), former Mayor Oh recorded 17.2%, and Ahn 12.3%. Gwangjin-gu, part of the northeastern area, is the district where former Mayor Oh ran in the April 15 general election and currently serves as the People Power Party’s district committee chairman. Ahn was elected after running in Nowon-gu B district in the 19th and 20th National Assembly elections.

Former Mayor Oh also had high preference in the central area including Jongno-gu (Yongsan-gu, Jongno-gu, Jung-gu) and the traditionally conservative-weak southwestern area (Gangseo-gu, Gwanak-gu, Guro-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Dongjak-gu, Yangcheon-gu, Yeongdeungpo-gu). On the other hand, in the southeastern area (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, Gangdong), known as the stronghold of the People Power Party, preference for Ahn was 18.9%, 3.6 percentage points higher than former Mayor Oh.

By party support, among those who responded that they support progressive parties (Democratic Party, Justice Party, Open Democratic Party), Ahn recorded 11.2% and former Mayor Oh 9.6%. Conversely, among supporters of conservative parties (People Power Party, People’s Party), former Mayor Oh led with 30.6% over Ahn’s 23.2%. Among the so-called 'no party affiliation' group, former Mayor Oh had 17.8% and Ahn 17.2%.

Ahn also led in preference among those who responded that they support President Moon Jae-in with 12.6%, indicating a stronger centrist image than former Mayor Oh.

It is also notable that former lawmaker Geum, who was until recently a member of the Democratic Party, ranked third as an opposition candidate. Geum showed particularly high preference among men aged 50 and above (50s 12.3%, 60s 12.8%, 70s and above 13.9%). Among those who responded that they support the Justice Party, Geum recorded 16.1%, ahead of Ahn (14.9%) and former Mayor Oh (5.1%). His departure from the Democratic Party amid criticism appears to reflect conservative opposition expectations.

This survey was conducted from the 1st to the 2nd among men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with an overall response rate of 8.07%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number via wireless ARS. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of September 2020 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.