"An unprecedented situation may unfold where no one knows who the next US president is"

Concerns Grow Over Post-Election Disputes Following Largest-Ever Mail-In Voting
Recount Scenarios May Unfold After Election Results
Market Turmoil Inevitable If US Political Chaos Ensues

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the US presidential election just around the corner on the 3rd of next month, the whole world is paying close attention to the outcome. The US presidential election, which is already controversial due to its complex electoral system, is feared to face unprecedented disputes this year. After the election, the losing side may refuse to accept the results, leading to a situation where 'it is impossible to determine who the winner is.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 25th (local time), US media outlets such as MarketWatch reported concerns about a contested election, where the losing side challenges the legitimacy or validity of the election results after the US presidential election. Especially this year, due to concerns over COVID-19, mail-in voting is at an all-time high. In fact, so far, 40.06 million voters in the US have cast their ballots by mail, marking the largest scale of mail-in voting in US history.

The reason mail-in voting is a contentious issue is not only due to procedural problems but also because it is closely related to the order of vote counting. In key states that could decide the election outcome?Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan?mail-in ballots are not allowed to be opened until Election Day. Moreover, unlike in-person voting, mail-in voting takes time to count, so the final election results will take time to be announced. In Pennsylvania, it is expected that it may take about a week to accurately tally the votes.

In this election, a significant portion of Democratic voters cast their ballots by mail. Therefore, it is highly likely that President Donald Trump will lead in the early vote count, but as mail-in ballots are counted, the election results could be reversed. However, President Trump, who has previously raised concerns about mail-in voting, may claim victory in certain districts based on the early vote count.

But if the counting of mail-in ballots is completed and the in-person vote results are overturned, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden may claim victory.

Furthermore, if a legal battle over the election results ensues, confirming the election outcome could take even longer. According to US law, election results must be reported by December 8, and the Electoral College must vote by December 14. Therefore, the vote count must be finalized and electors determined before these dates.

However, there are concerns that no conclusion on the winner may be reached even by this deadline. The counting process could be controversial because each region has complex procedures related to mail-in voting. For example, in North Carolina, mail-in ballots require a witness's signature on the outer envelope. If many voters fail to follow this procedure, a significant number of ballots could be invalidated.

US media also view President Trump's push to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, even at the risk of overreach, as preparation for potential post-election legal battles. He aims to strengthen his position in the Supreme Court in advance.

Already, the market has warned that if a chaotic election result does not emerge, stock markets could plunge sharply. In fact, during the 2000 presidential election, the stock market experienced a significant decline amid ongoing confusion over the election results.