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[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] With the U.S. presidential election just two weeks away, the race is becoming increasingly tight. Republican presidential candidate President Donald Trump is making a late surge to catch up with Democratic candidate Joe Biden, narrowing the gap in traditional battleground states. However, in traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas, Biden, who was relatively behind, is closing the gap. As the election enters its final stages, forecasts suggest that the situation in each state will become increasingly unpredictable and shrouded in uncertainty.
On the 18th (local time), CNN reported that Biden has a chance of winning not only in traditional Democratic strongholds but also in Republican bastions. CNN cited Texas as a prime example. Texas has 38 electoral votes, the second highest after California.
Texas is a traditional Republican stronghold that produced the Bush presidential family. In the 2016 election, President Trump won Texas with 52.2% of the vote, decisively defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who garnered 43.2%.
The situation has changed significantly over the past four years. According to RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregated polls in Texas, President Trump leads by 4.4 percentage points, but the gap has narrowed enough for Texas to be considered a battleground state. Although Biden has not yet led Trump in any polls, the election dynamics have shifted. CNN noted, "Texas, which has not given a Democratic victory for at least a generation, could show a different face this year."
The situation in Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes, is also notable. According to RCP's aggregated polls in Georgia, Biden leads by 1.2 percentage points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from October 8 to 12 showed Biden leading by a shocking 7 percentage points.
As recently as July, President Trump maintained a stable lead in Georgia, but in October, Biden overtook him and the gap has continued to widen. Since 1996, Georgia has consistently chosen Republican presidents in presidential elections and gave Trump a 5-point victory margin in the last election. The Associated Press (AP) has diagnosed that Trump is in trouble in two states where he must win.
If Biden Wins Texas and Georgia, He Wins the Election
The New York Times (NYT) explained the change in Georgia as due to a large influx of population into the metropolitan area of Atlanta, reducing the proportion of white voters. Most of the migrants are Hispanics and other Democratic support bases, NYT reported.
Texas and Georgia have a significant share of the total U.S. electoral votes, making them major variables in the presidential election. If these states choose Biden, it is widely assessed that President Trump's reelection would become virtually impossible. RCP stated that as of this day, Biden is projected to secure 216 electoral votes. To win the U.S. presidential election, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes. This means Biden needs only 54 more electoral votes. If Biden adds just Texas (38 votes) and Georgia (16 votes) to his current tally, regardless of other battleground state results, he will reach exactly 270 electoral votes.
Candidate Joe Biden stands holding a milkshake with his granddaughter ahead of a campaign rally in North Carolina. [Photo by Reuters]
President Trump is catching up with Biden in traditional battleground states such as Florida and Pennsylvania. The NYT estimated that if Trump secures Georgia and Texas along with battleground states Florida and Pennsylvania, he could obtain 228 electoral votes. Trump has been holding a series of large rallies in these areas to rally his base. If he also wins Ohio and North Carolina, he would have 261 electoral votes. Adding Arizona would bring his total to 272 electoral votes, creating a scenario where Trump could win.
The Biden campaign remains cautious. Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), appeared on CBS on the same day and said that although Biden leads in battleground state polls, the Democrats do not take victory for granted. He likened the polls to a roller coaster, saying, "I always warn people never to ride the 'Poller-coaster.'"
Both President Trump and Biden continued campaigning mainly in battleground states. Trump visited Nevada, one of the important battleground states. According to NYT/Siena University polls, he trails Biden by 6 percentage points but is encouraging his base of evangelical Christians. He attended a service at the International Church in Las Vegas. After campaigning in California, he visited Carson City, Nevada, where he fiercely criticized Biden's family as a "criminal enterprise." Supporters responded with chants of "Lock him up."
He also did not forget to appeal to women and the elderly. Trump has been repeatedly sending messages asking suburban women to support him and pledged to protect American seniors from the coronavirus.
Biden visited Durham, North Carolina, urging early voting with the message, "Let's vote today." He emphasized, "We need leadership that brings healing and hope." Before campaigning, Biden also visited the grave of his son Beau Biden, who died of brain cancer.
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