Next Presidential Race: Lee Nak-yeon 22.5%, Lee Jae-myung 21.4%... Neck-and-Neck Within Margin of Error

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] In the next presidential election preference survey, Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Lee Jae-myung, governor of Gyeonggi Province, are engaged in a close race within the margin of error for the top spot.

According to Realmeter's announcement on the 29th, based on a survey commissioned by 'OhmyNews' conducted from the 21st to the 25th targeting 14 major politicians from both ruling and opposition parties, Lee Nak-yeon recorded a preference rate of 22.5%, leading Lee Jae-myung, who recorded 21.4%, by 1.1 percentage points. Both Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung saw their preference rates drop by 2.1 and 1.9 percentage points respectively compared to last month.

Lee Nak-yeon's preference declined in his main support bases including Honam, as well as in Gyeonggi-Incheon, Seoul, and among people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. However, it rose among those aged 70 and above and among the unemployed and students. Lee Jae-myung's preference decreased in the Chungcheong region, Seoul, Gyeonggi-Incheon, and almost all age groups, while it increased among progressives.

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl maintained third place with a preference rate of 10.5%, which is a 0.6 percentage point decrease from the previous survey.

In fourth place, Representative Hong Joon-pyo rose one rank with a 2.2 percentage point increase to 7.2%. Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, rose 0.6 percentage points to 6.5% but dropped one rank to fifth place. Former Mayor Oh Se-hoon maintained sixth place with a 0.7 percentage point decrease to 4.0%.

Following were former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn (3.6%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (3.0%), Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae (2.5%), Justice Party leader Shim Sang-jung (2.3%), and Gyeongnam Governor Kim Kyung-soo (1.7%). Former Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum, Future United Party emergency committee chairman Kim Jong-in, and presidential foreign and security advisor Lim Jong-seok each recorded a preference rate of 1.2%, remaining in the lower ranks.

The combined preference rate for the progressive camp candidates (Lee Nak-yeon, Lee Jae-myung, Chu Mi-ae, Shim Sang-jung, Kim Boo-kyum, Kim Kyung-soo, Lim Jong-seok) dropped 4.2 percentage points to 52.7%, while the combined preference rate for the conservative and opposition camp candidates (Yoon Seok-youl, Hong Joon-pyo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Oh Se-hoon, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Won Hee-ryong, Kim Jong-in) rose 2.9 percentage points to 36.1%. The gap between the two camps narrowed from 23.7 percentage points to 16.6 percentage points.

This survey contacted 53,396 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, with a final response of 2,543 people, recording a response rate of 4.8%. The sampling error is ±1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.