[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Can the Four Questions Between North and South Korea Be Resolved?

Different Investigation Results from Both Koreas Raise More Questions
Government Proposed Joint Investigation to North, but Likely to Fail Due to Lack of Precedent

Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Song Young-gil, chairman of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, attended the full committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the 25th and were talking before the meeting started. At the meeting, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and Unification Minister Lee In-young received a briefing on the recent incident involving a government official shot near Soyeonpyeongdo by North Korea. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Our government has decided to request additional investigations from the North regarding the killing of the missing public official in the West Sea, drawing attention to uncovering the truth.

The Blue House stated, "We have convened a Standing Committee meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) and decided to do so, and if necessary, we will also request a joint investigation."

There is a need for further investigation because the intelligence assessment by our intelligence authorities differs from the explanation provided by North Korea in its notification regarding whether Mr. A's body was burned, whether there was a statement about attempting to defect to the North, the shooting situation at the time, and orders from superiors.

Earlier, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un expressed his regret regarding the North Korean military's shooting and mutilation of Mr. A, saying, "I deeply apologize for causing great disappointment to President Moon Jae-in and the southern compatriots."

▲ Conflicting Claims Between South and North = The traditional letter sent by the North’s United Front Department on the 25th raises several questions. There are four points where the traditional letter from the North and the facts revealed by our government differ: mutilation of the body, defection to the North, decision by the Naval Command, and disappearance of the body.

According to the traditional letter, North Korea stated that it did not burn the body of the South Korean citizen who was shot dead in the northern waters of the West Sea. The letter said, "After firing, we approached within about 10 meters to confirm and search, but the unidentified intruder was not on the floating object," and "The floating object the intruder was on was incinerated on-site at sea according to national emergency quarantine regulations." This differs from the military authorities' explanation that the North Korean military shot Mr. A (47), who went missing while on a fisheries guidance vessel near Soyeonpyeongdo, poured oil on the body, and burned it. Defense Minister Seo Wook also said at the National Assembly Defense Committee plenary session the day before that based on such analysis, the light from burning Mr. A’s body was "visible for 40 minutes."

The second point is whether Mr. A expressed an intention to defect to the North. Our military authorities believe it is highly likely that Mr. A voluntarily attempted to defect. The reasons cited include that Mr. A △ was wearing a life jacket △ took off slippers when leaving the vessel △ used a small floating object △ and when found in northern waters, there was evidence that he expressed an intention to defect to the North.

On the other hand, North Korea stated, "We approached within 80 meters to identify the person illegally intruding on our coast on a floating object, but at first, he vaguely said he was someone from the Republic of Korea and then stopped responding." However, the North made no mention regarding whether Mr. A expressed an intention to defect.

There are also conflicting views on whether there was an order to shoot. The Ministry of National Defense has said, "It appears that the North Korean military patrol boat fired at the missing person under orders from superiors." There is also circumstantial evidence that the Navy Command gave orders just before the shooting. However, North Korea explained, "The unidentified target repeatedly disobeyed the patrol order and approached closer, so after firing two warning shots, a situation arose where the target seemed to flee," and "We fired about 10 rounds at the illegal intruder from a distance of 40 to 50 meters." They added, "Under the decision of the commander and according to the rules of engagement approved by maritime boundary duty regulations."

The fact that Mr. A, who was wearing a life jacket, was shot and disappeared into the sea is also a question to be resolved. North Korea stated in the notification, "After firing, there was no movement or sound, so we approached within about 10 meters to confirm and search, but the unidentified intruder was not on the floating object, and a large amount of blood was found." If he was wearing a life jacket, it would have been easier to find Mr. A. Some speculate that since our government could not find the source of the life jacket Mr. A was wearing, North Korea may have exploited this.

The military and coast guard have not clearly revealed the source of the life jacket Mr. A was wearing at the time of death or the identity of the floating object. The Ministry of National Defense announced that when Mr. A was found on the 22nd near Deungsangot, North Korea, he was wearing a life jacket while relying on a floating object. Based on this, the Ministry of National Defense viewed Mr. A as having voluntarily defected to the North.

According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries regulations, the capacity of the 499-ton Mugunghwa 10 vessel is 19 people, and the required number of life jackets is 29, but there are actually 85 life jackets on board, far exceeding the requirement. Before departure, the vessel must check the quantity and condition of safety equipment such as life jackets.

Conflicting Investigation Results Between South and North
1. Government: "Body Mutilation" VS North: "Only Floating Object Incinerated"
2. Government: "Evidence of Defection" VS North: "No Statement of Intention"
3. Government: "Order from Superiors" VS North: "According to Regulations"
4. Government: "Wearing Life Jacket" VS North: "Disappeared After Shooting"

▲ Will North Korea Agree to a Joint Investigation? = Although the Blue House has requested additional and joint investigations from the North, there are prospects that a joint investigation between South and North will be difficult. This is because North Korea is showing a progressive attitude to the extent that Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un publicly apologized to the South. However, some speculate that since Kim also apologized, there is a possibility of a signed investigation.

First, our government believes that additional or joint investigations are inevitable given the significant discrepancies between the claims of the South and North.

Therefore, our government may choose to send a detailed document listing the questions about the parts where the military and intelligence authorities’ findings differ from the North’s explanation. The North could conduct additional investigations on the questions raised by the South and send the results back in the form of a notification.

Whether the North participates is uncertain. There is little precedent for joint investigations between South and North on incidents involving the deaths of military personnel and civilians. When the Park Wang-ja shooting incident occurred in July 2008 at Mount Kumgang, the government urged North Korea to allow a site visit, but North Korea refused. As a result, the government joint investigation team conducted ballistic and object identification tests using a woman in her 50s and a mannequin on the coast of Goseong County, Gangwon Province, similar to the Mount Kumgang site, and announced its own investigation results based on these simulated tests.

Also, regarding the 2010 Cheonan incident, North Korea demanded the dispatch of a National Defense Commission inspection team and a joint investigation, but the South did not accept it. Face-to-face investigation of the North Korean soldier who ordered the shooting and infectious diseases are expected to be obstacles to joint investigations. North Korea is focusing on quarantine measures, effectively sealing its borders to prevent the infiltration of COVID-19. Under these circumstances, it is expected to be difficult for the South’s investigation team to enter.

A government official said, "North Korea will continue to manage the situation until the Party Foundation Day on October 10 and continue to manage it until the 8th Party Congress in January next year," adding, "Because of this schedule, North Korea is unlikely to create a situation different from what was expected, so a joint investigation may not be easy."