[The Editors' Verdict] The Suga Era: Korea-Japan Relations Must Change

Yoshihide Suga has been inaugurated as the 99th Prime Minister of Japan. The new Prime Minister Suga is a close aide of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, having served as Chief Cabinet Secretary for 7 years and 8 months, playing the role of Abe's second-in-command. Since he is regarded as Abe 2.0, the likelihood of a change in Japanese government policy just because the prime minister has changed is very low. Just looking at his statements about inheriting Abenomics, which is considered a failed policy, and appointing Abe’s brother and close aides to the cabinet, it is hard to expect significant changes. Since Prime Minister Suga is likely aiming for re-election and does not have an independent faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, he does not seem to be leading major changes immediately. He also said he would consult Abe on foreign policy, so it does not seem that the strained Korea-Japan relations will improve.

However, there are many opinions that Prime Minister Suga should not be underestimated. His stance as the second-in-command and as the leader inevitably differ. Japan faces multiple pressing challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tokyo Olympics, economic recession, and the US-China hegemonic rivalry. The already tangled Korea-Japan relationship will certainly worsen if the asset liquidation measures against wartime companies involved in forced labor are implemented. In the current situation, neither the Suga government nor the Moon Jae-in government is likely to back down. The worsening of Korea-Japan relations as it stands is largely the responsibility of the political leaders of both countries. The biggest reason for the failure to find solutions to improve bilateral relations is that both countries insist only on their own positions without truly understanding what they and the other side genuinely want.

To achieve good results in negotiations, it is most important to identify what the true interests are for oneself and the other party. A good example illustrating the importance of interests in negotiation is the Israel-Egypt talks. The 1978 Camp David negotiations were peace talks between Israel and Egypt. Both countries wanted a peace agreement, but the issue of returning the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel occupied, was a stumbling block, and the talks seemed to fail. Israel could not accept returning the Sinai Peninsula, and Egypt could not accept a peace agreement without the full return of the Sinai Peninsula.

Jimmy Carter, the former US president who acted as mediator, first identified what the two countries truly wanted. In fact, Israel’s interest was national security, not ownership of the Sinai Peninsula. Israel opposed returning the Sinai Peninsula because it felt threatened if Egyptian troops were stationed there. On the other hand, Egypt did not want the Sinai Peninsula for military purposes but was interested in restoring sovereignty, that is, having the Egyptian flag flying over the Sinai Peninsula. After understanding the true interests of both countries, the US proposed a mediation plan, which Israel and Egypt accepted. The mediation plan was to hand over the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt on the condition that no military forces would be deployed there.

The Camp David negotiation case offers many lessons for the strained Korea-Japan relationship. It is important for both Korea and Japan to identify their true interests. When it is difficult to reach an agreement between the parties, seeking solutions through a mediator can be considered. Approaching Japan policy only from the perspective of resolving individual issues such as forced labor, the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), and export controls makes it almost impossible to find common ground. In reality, Korea-Japan relations are more influenced by structural changes in US-China relations than by historical particularities. It is more important than ever to understand what the people of Korea and Japan truly want from a future-oriented perspective. The launch of the Suga government should be actively used as an opportunity to find ways to satisfy mutual desires without letting bilateral relations spiral into a catastrophe.

Insoo Kang, Professor, Department of Economics, Sookmyung Women’s University