[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] The Meaning of President Trump's Mention of Nuclear Armament

Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine 'San Francisco' of the United States

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As U.S.-China tensions escalate and the United States intensifies military pressure targeting China, there is speculation that this will serve as a signal for the full-scale promotion of South Korea's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Analysts interpret U.S. President Donald Trump's remark that the necessity of nuclear armament for South Korea and Japan will be "a major topic of discussion over the next two months" as part of this trend.

On the 11th (local time), President Trump appeared on the radio program 'Hugh Hewitt Show' and was asked by the host, "How will you respond to China's aggression, and will Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan pursue nuclear armament or hypersonic missile capabilities?" He replied, "I won't say anything, but it is causing problems, and it will be a major topic of our discussions over the next two months." Since the answer was not specific, it is interpreted that the emphasis was on China's aggression rather than explicitly pinpointing the nuclear armament issues of South Korea and Japan as the discussion topic.

However, the movements of the Blue House and the Ministry of National Defense regarding the nuclear submarine initiative have shown significant signs. Earlier, on the 28th of last month, Kim Hyun-jong, the Second Deputy Director of the National Security Office at the Blue House, announced the lifting of the U.S.-South Korea missile guidelines and appeared on KBS, stating, "The next-generation submarine will be equipped with a nuclear-fueled engine." He also categorically stated, "The construction of nuclear-powered submarines and the U.S.-South Korea Atomic Energy Agreement are separate matters."

At that time, most reactions considered Kim's remarks as overly optimistic hopes. This is because it is impossible unless the U.S.-South Korea Atomic Energy Agreement, which prohibits the military use of uranium, is revised, and there were no signs that the U.S. would allow it. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines was also a campaign pledge of President Moon Jae-in during his presidential candidacy.

Regarding this, Moon Geun-sik, a professor at Kyonggi University's Graduate School of Political Studies and former head of the nuclear-powered submarine project team during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, said, "Since South Korea imports most of its uranium from the U.S. with less than 20% low-enriched uranium, if it can be persuaded that it is not at a level to make nuclear weapons, U.S. approval is quite possible."

The Ministry of National Defense announced on the 10th its mid-term defense plan, revealing plans to build a 4,000-ton class submarine. A 4,000-ton class submarine essentially indicates an intention to equip a nuclear propulsion engine rather than the existing diesel engine. A Ministry of National Defense official, while explaining this, did not actively deny it and left room for future explanations, attracting attention. Considering that neither Kim's remarks nor the Ministry's announcement could have been made unilaterally without consultation with the U.S., this suggests that the issue of South Korea's acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines has been subject to behind-the-scenes negotiations as part of U.S.-China tensions.

Since revising the solid-fuel usage restriction guidelines last month, the U.S. and South Korea have also mentioned extending the missile range, which was limited to 800 km. Kim said, "The range restriction issue will also be resolved 'in due time' (meaning soon at an appropriate time)," speaking as if it were confirmed. This implies that considerable coordination has been made between the U.S. and South Korea on this matter. In diplomatic circles, there is also an interpretation that the South Korean government delayed the timing in consideration of China's backlash.

The 800 km missile range can strike all of North Korea from the central and southern regions. Military diplomacy experts interpret lifting the missile range restriction, which was maintained even during the 2000s when North Korea's nuclear and missile threats increased, as the U.S. signaling South Korea to check China. Kim Jong-dae, head of the Korean Peninsula Peace Headquarters of the Justice Party, said, "If the missile range is extended, it means that South Korea will be positioned to check China with long-range ballistic missiles in the future."