[Viewpoint] North Korea Trapped in the "Winner's Curse"

Lee Yong-jun, former Ambassador for North Korean Nuclear Affairs (Deputy Minister) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

There is a saying called the "winner's curse." It refers to the severe aftermath faced by a winning bidder who submits an excessively high bid price. There are many cases of the "winner's curse" in the world of international politics as well. The Greek expeditionary force led by Agamemnon of Mycenae in the 13th century BC won the 10-year war against Troy, but the resulting depletion of national power led to the collapse of the entire Mycenaean civilization within just a few decades. In the late 1930s, Germany and Japan, intoxicated by successive military successes, engaged in a war with the world and met a disastrous end. Deng Xiaoping, the pioneer of China's reform and opening-up, left a directive to his successors to maintain the "hide your strength, bide your time" policy for 100 years until the national power became sufficiently strong. However, encouraged by China's remarkable economic growth, they began to raise their heads in just over a decade, and as a result, China started an unwinnable hegemonic struggle with the United States far too early.

North Korea is a country experiencing a "winner's curse" as severe as these. For 30 years after the division, North Korea held a firm superiority over South Korea in all aspects, including military power, economic strength, and diplomacy, but since 1974, when South Korea's Gross National Product (GNP) surpassed North Korea's, it has continued a wingless fall. As a result, from the late 1970s for about 40 years, South Korea has exercised leadership over the Korean Peninsula issue from a significantly superior position compared to North Korea. During those 40 years, North Korea devoted itself to developing nuclear weapons to reverse the balance of power on the peninsula and restore its superiority over the South, finally officially declaring the completion of its nuclear armament at the end of 2017. It was a victory 38 years after North Korea began building secret nuclear facilities in Yongbyon in 1979. The subsequent inter-Korean relations appeared to be led by North Korea from a superior position. The US-North Korea summits, which North Korea had long desired for decades, were held twice, and everything seemed to move according to North Korea's intentions. However, the moment of truth soon arrived, and the "winner's curse" began. While North Korea completed its nuclear development in 2017, the international community completed a network of sanctions against North Korea through the UN Security Council. The sanctions are so robust that they fundamentally block any flow of money into North Korea, whether through trade, investment, or economic resources. As a result, North Korea's foreign exports have decreased by more than 90%, and its foreign exchange reserves, the bastion of regime maintenance, are expected to be depleted soon.

North Korea attempted to persuade the United States to lift sanctions with the help of the South Korean government, but this was merely a vain hope for North Korea. The Moon Jae-in administration sought to provide astronomical funds to modernize North Korea's infrastructure, but this too could not overcome the thick wall of sanctions. Unless North Korea abandons its vanity of remaining a nuclear-armed state and achieving Korean Peninsula unification in its own way, no South Korean administration can do anything to help North Korea, and North Korea must face the fate it has chosen on its own. Recently, North Korea's harsh criticism of the South Korean government under the pretext of anti-North Korean leaflets sounds less like a threat and more like a scream trapped in a trap with no exit or retreat. Despite the North Korean authorities' high-handed attitude, as if acting as the suzerain over South Korea, there is a deep sense of frustration and anxiety about the urgent economic crisis North Korea faces. If the power succession process intensifies in such a situation, the North Korean leadership's sense of crisis will escalate further.

This difficult situation faced by North Korea has at least provided us, who have been watching North Korea's recent actions with anxious eyes over the past few years, a moment to catch our breath. The current point, where a cornered North Korea is immersed in domestic issues, is a providential opportunity for us to reflect on ourselves and reorganize. Before it is too late, it is time to normalize our chaotic North Korea policy and security policy and establish a systematic response posture toward a nuclear-armed North Korea. Regaining the leadership of the Korean Peninsula issue, which has been left in North Korea's hands since 2017, is also an urgent matter that can no longer be postponed.