[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Will North Korean Troops Be Redeployed After Kaesong Industrial Complex Closure?

On the morning of the 7th, foggy Kaesong Industrial Complex can be seen beyond the North Korean Kijeong-dong village from the rooftop of Daeseong-dong village hall located within the DMZ in Paju, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Joint Press Corps

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] As Kim Yo-jong, the first deputy director of the Workers' Party of North Korea, has announced the demolition of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office, there are prospects that military units could be redeployed to the Kaesong Industrial Complex. This is due to concerns that asset confiscation and closure measures of the Kaesong Industrial Complex will follow the expected demolition of the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office.

If the Kaesong Industrial Complex is closed following the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office, North Korea could militarize the area again. In 2016, when the South Korean government suspended operations of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, North Korea stationed armed guards with rifles throughout the complex and deployed 240mm multiple rocket launchers.

North Korea uses the Kaesong Industrial Complex area as a primary invasion route in case of emergency. During the Korean War, the 6th Division mobile unit stationed north of Kaesong occupied the Kaesong and Ongjin areas and rapidly advanced operations up to Yeongdeungpo. Kaesong is a strategic military point that allows the shortest breakthrough to Seoul. The North Korean military reportedly opposed handing over Kaesong, a strategic military location, to the South when the Kaesong Industrial Complex issue was raised in 1999.

If North Korea redeploys troops to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the units likely to be stationed in Kaesong and Bongdong-ri, Panmun-eup, would be the 6th Division, 64th Division, and 62nd Artillery Brigade of the 2nd Corps. These units were stationed in the Kaesong area before the construction of the Kaesong Industrial Complex in December 2003 but were relocated north of Songaksan and to Kaepung County during the operation of the complex. The main tank of the 6th Division is the 'Chunma-ho,' and the 62nd Artillery Brigade is armed with 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers. Considering their range of 54 to 65 km, they have the capability to directly strike Seoul.

South Korea and the United States have been preparing for various sudden changes in North Korea under 'Operation Plan (OPLAN) 5029.' OPLAN 5029 includes military responses to six types of sudden changes, one of which covers hostage situations involving South Korean nationals within the Kaesong Industrial Complex. However, since January, all South Korean personnel have been withdrawn from the complex due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, South Korean and U.S. military authorities are monitoring the possibility of North Korean provocations that cannot be immediately attributed to a specific actor. In the frontline areas, surveillance is maintained using thermal observation devices (TOD) and SIGINT (signals intelligence and video information) equipment, while in the air and at sea, surveillance is conducted through Peace Eye (airborne control aircraft) and Aegis destroyers. The U.S. Forces Korea reportedly dispatched Guardrail (RC-12X) reconnaissance aircraft on the 13th, 14th, and again recently to collect intelligence on North Korea.

A military official stated, "No unusual activities have been detected at North Korean guard posts (GP) in the Demilitarized Zone or coastal artillery positions on the West Coast so far," adding, "The lowering of the North Korean flag and the Supreme Commander’s flag at some western frontline GPs is not considered unusual."