North Korea: "Let's Go All the Way"... Into the Turbulence of Inter-Korean Relations

Closure of Kaesong Liaison Office and Termination of Military Agreement Announced
Moon Jae-in Government's Biggest Inter-Korean Achievement Faces Collapse Risk
Experts Say "Breakthrough Needed Through Inter-Korean Summit"

President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un are shaking hands at Panmunjom on June 30, 2019.

With North Korea announcing the planned dismantling of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Liaison Office despite the South Korean government's announcement on the 5th that it is preparing legislation to prevent the distribution of anti-North leaflets, inter-Korean relations have plunged into turmoil.

On the 5th, the North Korean United Front Department stated in a spokesperson's statement directed at the South Korean government, "An enemy is still an enemy," and declared, "Let's go all the way." They clearly indicated their intention to take concrete actions.

The United Front Department said, "Kim Yo-jong, the First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, issued instructions on the 5th to commence a review project for the practical implementation of the points raised in the statement regarding inter-Korean affairs."

In her statement the previous day, First Deputy Director Kim strongly hinted that if the South Korean government allows the distribution of anti-North leaflets, North Korea would take measures such as the complete dismantling of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, closure of the liaison office, and termination of the inter-Korean military agreement.

The United Front Department described the liaison office as the "first step," stating, "It will definitely be dismantled, and various other measures already hinted at will follow," raising concerns that actions such as the closure of the liaison office, termination of the inter-Korean military agreement, and dismantling of the Kaesong Industrial Complex may follow.

The inter-Korean military agreement and the inter-Korean liaison office are regarded as the greatest achievements in inter-Korean relations under the Moon Jae-in administration.

The Workers' Party organ, Rodong Sinmun, published on the front page on the 6th various reactions from all sectors of North Korea regarding the statement issued by Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, on the 4th condemning the distribution of leaflets to North Korea by defectors. The photo shows students from Kim Chaek University of Technology holding a rally with slogans such as "Death to defector trash."

Criticism has emerged that the current crisis pushing inter-Korean relations to the brink was caused by the government's failure to manage its messaging toward North Korea.

Professor Park Won-gon of Handong Global University analyzed, "When the Ministry of Unification responded to Kim Yo-jong's statement within four hours and thirty minutes, North Korea judged that pressure was effective and decided to firmly settle the matter this time."

Professor Park added, "(North Korea) seems to have been motivated by the judgment that the South Korean government would be pressured to declare the immediate resumption of tourism to Mount Kumgang and the Kaesong Industrial Complex, deviating from cooperation with the U.S. and the international sanctions regime, and even if the South Korean government fails to implement this, this opportunity could accelerate the decoupling of the South Korea-U.S. alliance."

Furthermore, Professor Park evaluated, "The statement also revealed an intention to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula through a series of actions, including the anticipated declaration of the termination of the September 19 military agreement, to pressure the United States."

To resolve the current situation, experts suggest that a summit between the leaders of the two Koreas is necessary rather than intermittent and one-off dialogue proposals or inter-Korean cooperation project offers.

Professor Im Eul-chul of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University analyzed, "The current inter-Korean relations starkly reveal that we are once again experiencing peace on a knife's edge," adding, "North Korea is, in short, continuously expressing its limits of patience and accumulated disappointment due to the South Korean government's significantly weak ability to implement agreements between the two leaders."

Professor Im advised, "It is necessary to demonstrate peace leadership and consistent peace messaging at the highest leadership level," and "The government must not respond reactively to North Korea's reactions but urgently show comprehensive and systematic capabilities to implement inter-Korean agreements and promote peace."

Professor Jung Dae-jin of Ajou University interpreted, "North Korea said it would 'definitely' abolish the joint liaison office, so some measures will be taken soon," and explained, "Among the measures mentioned in Kim Yo-jong's statement?closure of the liaison office, dismantling of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and termination of the military agreement?they intend to proceed incrementally, starting with the least severe."

Professor Jung said, "The direction is set, and this has become a problem that the Ministry of Unification or working-level units cannot resolve," adding, "The United Front Department is executing Kim Yo-jong's orders, which are essentially Kim Jong-un's orders, and a prompt inter-Korean summit is needed for a major directional shift." He also pointed out, "However, North Korea will likely not respond to our public proposals, so careful contact attempts through confidential special envoys are necessary."