[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] There are concerns that the United States may delay the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) if the South Korean government does not accept an increase in defense cost-sharing negotiations. This is because President Moon Jae-in pledged during the 2017 presidential election to push for the OPCON transfer within his term, which could be used as leverage in negotiations.
On the 1st, a military official stated, "The joint exercise planned for early March was indefinitely postponed due to the COVID-19 outbreak, so the joint readiness verification was not conducted. We are currently discussing with the U.S. side to carry out the exercise in the second half of the year."
However, inside and outside the military, there are also speculations that the U.S. side might postpone the second half of the year’s ROK-U.S. joint exercise scheduled for August until next year, citing COVID-19 as the official reason.
General Robert Abrams, Commander of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, is reportedly strongly emphasizing that maintaining the "Fight Tonight" readiness posture of the combined forces should be the top priority amid ongoing North Korean nuclear and missile threats. On the other hand, the South Korean side insists that the FOC (Full Operational Capability) verification of the future combined forces command for OPCON transfer must be conducted as planned in the second half of the year. It is known that the ROK and U.S. sides signed an "agreement" earlier this month regarding the "second half FOC verification," but it is not legally binding.
To fully receive OPCON from the U.S. military, the South Korean military must pass phased conditions verifying core capabilities to lead the ROK-U.S. combined defense. The ROK and U.S. have three stages: ▲Stage 1 Initial Operational Capability (IOC) ▲Stage 2 Full Operational Capability (FOC) ▲Stage 3 Full Mission Capability (FMC). The IOC evaluation, corresponding to Stage 1, was completed last year, and the FOC evaluation is scheduled for the second half of this year. The final stage, FMC verification, must be passed by 2021 for the OPCON transfer to occur within President Moon’s term.
If the FOC scheduled for the second half of this year is not conducted, the OPCON transfer within President Moon’s term will be virtually impossible. Some suggest that there are disagreements between the ROK and U.S. sides. The South Korean military insists that the OPCON transfer verification should proceed as planned, but the U.S. military believes that joint readiness inspections should take priority.
The Blue House has drawn a clear line, stating that the training for OPCON transfer is proceeding normally and is unrelated to the ROK-U.S. defense cost-sharing negotiations. A Blue House official said on the morning of the 27th at the press center, "The claim that the U.S. linked defense cost-sharing negotiations with OPCON transfer is completely untrue."
A government official said, "Differences between the ROK and U.S. on defense cost-sharing negotiations have not been narrowed," adding, "Since the U.S. side’s dissatisfaction is indirectly reflected in incidents such as the North Korean army’s shooting at the DMZ guard post (GP), we need to monitor the situation regarding joint exercises as well."
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