[New Cold War Diagnosis③] South Korea: "US and China Haven't Crossed the Point of No Return... The Key Is the US Presidential Election"

Professor Seo Jeong-geon, Kyung Hee University Department of Political Science and Diplomacy
Deterioration of US-China Relations After COVID-19
US-China Relations with High Economic Dependence Differ from US-Soviet Relations
US-China Relations Have Shown Improvement Patterns After US Presidential Elections So Far
Whether Relations Improve After November Is Crucial

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] "It is too early to say that US-China relations have crossed the point of no return because the US presidential election has not yet concluded this year. I believe there is still room for restoring bilateral relations after the election."

Professor Seo Jeong-geon of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Kyung Hee University, an expert on the United States, evaluated in a phone interview that it is premature to assert that the US and China have fallen into a new Cold War. From the perspective of a nutcracker caught between the two, he seemed to place weight on the hope that there is room for improvement in bilateral relations. Earlier this month, Professor Seo gave a presentation on changes in US politics at a policy seminar on the "Post-Corona Era" hosted by the Presidential Policy Planning Committee.

Like other US-China scholars, he agreed with the perception that relations between the two countries have deteriorated amid situations such as the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the Hong Kong National Security Law (Hong Kong Security Law). Professor Seo said, "It is true that (US-China relations) are more difficult than before," and analyzed, "Ahead of the US presidential election in November this year, President Donald Trump sees that attacking China helps mobilize his supporters." He explained that President Trump is trying to attack his election rival, former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, by leveraging anti-China sentiment within the US. He also evaluated that the Democratic Party is showing similar moves. Professor Seo introduced, "Former Vice President Biden is also actively engaging in attacking China, so there is no difference in views between the Democratic and Republican parties regarding US-China relations."

Professor Seo defined that the COVID-19 pandemic changed the flow of the Trump administration's foreign policy. He said, "US foreign policy was fundamentally sensitive to issues of values, but President Trump ignored these aspects and focused solely on economic issues," adding, "After the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump accepted issues pointed out by the US foreign policy community, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan." Although President Trump pursued a transaction-centered foreign policy rather than one based on values, he began to emphasize value issues in foreign policy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Professor Seo said, "Due to the impact of this year's US presidential election, the US will attack China and China will actively defend itself, but the real important point is whether the current level of conflict will continue after the election."

He predicted that the core of US-China conflicts before the election would be the Hong Kong issue. Professor Seo said, "US foreign policy is fundamentally sensitive to value issues. In the case of Hong Kong, it is democratization," and predicted, "The US Congress may announce responses such as revoking Hong Kong's special status related to the Hong Kong Security Law." However, he believed that if economic restoration proceeds between the US and China after the election, it may not become an obstacle.

Professor Seo saw room for restoring relations. This is due to the pattern between US-China relations and elections. He explained that there is a certain pattern in the US political sphere regarding US-China relations, where relations worsen before elections but the issues subside after the elections. He said, "US-China relations are fundamentally different from US-Soviet relations during the Cold War in that both sides need each other's markets," and added, "Although there may be emotional conflicts on the surface due to deep economic exchanges between the two countries, it is highly likely that economic exchanges will continue internally."

He also expressed the view that premature judgment on the US presidential election results should be avoided. Professor Seo said, "It is not an accurate assessment to say that President Trump's chances of re-election have decreased." He analyzed, "As US politics has become polarized, conservative media and conservative voters see President Trump as doing well, while progressive media and Democratic supporters see him as having failed in the initial response," and added, "Since the previous polarization structure has changed and President Trump is not being criticized across the entire US, it is difficult to say that his chances of re-election have decreased."

There was also a call for South Korea to respond calmly and cautiously. Professor Seo said, "The dispute between the US and China is proceeding almost in the form of an emotional fight," and argued, "There is no need to get involved in such a fight." He said, "It is a fight where the real benefits are hidden, and taking a position rashly could have greater repercussions than staying out of a fight over real benefits."