[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Who Is the Post Minister of National Defense?

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] There are continuous speculations that President Moon Jae-in will reshuffle the diplomatic and security lineup after the general election. Although the Blue House stated on the 6th that it is not considering any cabinet or staff changes, there are steady forecasts both inside and outside the military that the third cabinet will carry the second half of the administration.

Many point out that the core of the reshuffle will be the diplomatic and security line. Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, an original member, and Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo, who has recently been embroiled in controversies due to repeated military discipline lapses, have been mentioned as major candidates for replacement. If Minister Kang and Minister Jeong are replaced, there is also speculation that the Blue House’s diplomatic and security line, including National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong, could undergo a full-scale overhaul in succession.

There are rumors that Seo Hoon, Director of the National Intelligence Service, could be fully appointed as the successor to National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong. Seo took office in June 2017 and has shown a groundbreaking move by abolishing the domestic intelligence officer (IO, also known as intelligence officer) system of the National Intelligence Service. This was intended to eliminate chronic controversies such as political involvement. In April last year, he reportedly met unofficially with Jang Geum-chul, head of the North Korean Workers' Party United Front Department, emphasizing the need to resume early North Korea-US working-level talks after the collapse of the Hanoi second North Korea-US summit agreement. Having been directly involved in inter-Korean summits and effectively leading the current administration’s North Korea policy, he is considered a suitable candidate for the successor to the National Security Office Director.

As for Seo Hoon’s successor at the National Intelligence Service, Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and others are being considered, but the Blue House has not yet mentioned any personnel candidates. Minister Jeong is reportedly recognized for his achievements in implementing the inter-Korean military agreement and the conditional extension of the Korea-Japan military information protection agreement (GSOMIA). Minister Jeong is regarded as a leading Japan expert within the South Korean military. He received commissioned training at the Japan Air Self-Defense Force Officer School in 1995 and 2005 and is fluent in Japanese. However, during his tenure, serious military discipline issues have arisen, such as an incident where an active-duty soldier struck a female captain, who was an active-duty company commander, with a field shovel. Additionally, allegations of confidential information leaks by retired researchers from the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) have surfaced, leading to voices inside and outside the political sphere suggesting that a reshuffle may be inevitable.

The leading candidate for the next Defense Minister is former Navy Chief of Staff Hwang Ki-chul. Hwang gained recognition for commanding the 'Dawn of the Aden Gulf' operation in 2011, which rescued hostages kidnapped by Somali pirates. In 2015, he was arrested and indicted on charges including ordering the delivery of a low-performance hull-mounted sonar (HMS) to the rescue ship Tongyeong during an investigation into defense industry corruption. However, he was acquitted in both the first and second trials and finally cleared by the Supreme Court. Afterward, he stayed in China and was recruited into President Moon Jae-in’s campaign ahead of the 19th presidential election. He also ran as a Democratic Party candidate in the general election last April. Hwang ran in Changwon Jinhae, Gyeongnam, securing 48.8% of the vote but lost by a narrow margin of 1.4% to Future United Party candidate Lee Dal-gon. Some argue that since the current administration has already had ministers from the Navy (former Minister Song Young-moo) and the Air Force (current Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo), it might be burdensome to give the position to the Navy again.

Former Army Chief of Staff Kim Yong-woo is also mentioned as a strong candidate. After becoming Chief in August 2017, Kim was praised for implementing revolutionary military reforms, including distributing the 'Warrior Platform,' an advanced individual combat system that significantly enhanced soldiers’ combat capabilities, and promoting the 'five game changers.' He notably expanded the battalion-level scientific combat training system to the brigade level, establishing a world-class training system. He also formed a drone-robot combined combat unit to prepare for future battlefield environments, making significant contributions to improving the Army’s combat power. In 2018, when Jeong Kyeong-doo was appointed as Defense Minister, Kim was also considered as a candidate for the vacant Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The fact that the top military leadership has been composed of Navy and Air Force officers since the Moon administration’s launch, and that the second cabinet continued this trend, has caused a strong sense of relative deprivation within the Army, which seems to have heavily influenced military sentiment.

Expectations for a civilian Defense Minister are also high. The appointment of a civilian Defense Minister was considered shortly after the launch of the Roh Moo-hyun administration but was withdrawn due to North Korea’s nuclear tests. President Moon has consistently advocated that "the process of civilianizing the Ministry of National Defense through a civilian Defense Minister is absolutely necessary." In his autobiography, “Korea Asks ? Moon Jae-in Answers for a Completely New Country,” he pointed out, "All previous Defense Ministers in our country were military officers. Only once, after the April 19 Revolution, was there a civilian Defense Minister in a democratic government cabinet, but it was short-lived due to the May 16 coup, and since then, the Defense Minister has always been a military officer."

In this context, Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Kyu-baek, chairman of the National Defense Committee in the National Assembly, is also mentioned as a candidate. Ahn is known as a leading 'defense expert' within the ruling party. He served as secretary of the Defense Committee in the 18th and 19th National Assemblies and was active as chairman of the Defense Committee in the 20th National Assembly. However, there are opinions within and outside the military that he might refuse the Defense Minister position himself, having been elected to the 21st National Assembly. Last month, he was even mentioned as a candidate for the Democratic Party floor leader, suggesting that the ministerial level might be beyond his current scope.

Former Deputy Minister of National Defense Seo Joo-seok is also mentioned. Seo served as director of the Strategic Planning Office of the National Security Council (NSC), senior secretary for unification, diplomacy, and security at the Presidential Secretariat, and was appointed as the first Deputy Minister of National Defense in the Moon administration. During his approximately two-year tenure, he contributed to the promotion of Defense Reform 2.0 and the drafting of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement. However, allegations of his involvement in the concealment and fabrication related to the May 18 Democratic Uprising have become a critical weakness. In an apology statement released in 2018, Seo stated, "I only learned last year that the Ministry of National Defense organized a National Assembly Countermeasure Special Committee in May 1988 and that there was a group called the '511 Research Committee.' At the time, I was unaware that I was assigned as a dedicated working-level member of the National Assembly Countermeasure Special Committee along with a senior researcher."

Lastly, Kim Yoo-geun, a prominent figure from the 36th class of the Korea Military Academy, who currently serves as the first deputy director of the Blue House National Security Office and NSC Secretariat chief, is mentioned. Kim was promoted to lieutenant general in November 2012 and served as commander of the 8th Army Division, director of operations planning at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and commander of the 8th Corps. During the Park Geun-hye administration, he held positions such as deputy chief of staff of the Army in April 2014 and deputy chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from October onward, following a smooth career path until then. However, the dominance of the 36th class of the Korea Military Academy is a burden. His classmates include Mo Jong-hwa, head of the Military Manpower Administration; Park Sam-deuk, head of the National Veterans Affairs; and Jang Kyung-wook, ambassador to Iraq. Although he is evaluated as having benefited from being overshadowed by the 37th class, which includes Park Ji-man, chairman of EG and brother of former President Park Geun-hye, the remarkable advancement of the current administration may be burdensome. There are even rumors that Kim Yoo-geun has recently ordered security investigations into defense-related articles, effectively gagging the media, which adds to the perception that he might be a burden even within the current administration.