[Choi Jun-young's Urban Pilgrimage] General Election and Shrinking Cities

Shrinkage of Local Cities Due to Population Decline
Limitations of Overcoming Through Regeneration Projects
Need to Shift to Shrinkage-Oriented Urban Strategies
Prioritize Citizen Participation and Consensus Building

The parliamentary elections are just around the corner. Numerous candidates are appealing for support by claiming that they or their political parties can solve many challenges facing the Republic of Korea. Among these claims, regional development is likely the most prominent.

The notion that local areas might disappear altogether beyond mere population decline no longer sounds unfamiliar. The shrinkage of local regions is becoming concrete enough for anyone to feel it firsthand. The rise in vacant houses and abandoned shops symbolizes the decline of local areas, which has now become a familiar sight. Population decline is progressing rapidly by region. According to a 2016 study by the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, 21 cities?including Taebaek, Gongju, Jeongeup, Namwon, Gimje, Yeongju, Yeongcheon, Sangju, Miryang, Donghae, Iksan, Yeosu, Gyeongju, Samcheok, Boryeong, Nonsan, Naju, Gimcheon, Andong, and Mungyeong?were classified as 'shrinking cities' experiencing decline in various aspects including population.

To counter this trend, the government has implemented numerous projects over more than 60 years, including regulations on the metropolitan area, construction of innovation cities, and urban regeneration, investing enormous budgets. However, the results have been modest. Whether this is inevitable despite efforts or due to insufficient efforts remains a question, but most regions believe that the problem can be overcome through will and effort, and argue that more budget and support are necessary. Under the grand cause of balanced development and metropolitan area restraint, such claims are always accepted as truth and virtue, at least in official settings.

How should local governments respond when population decline occurs? Common sense suggests that the first step is to rearrange various facilities according to the shrinking population and revise urban plans and administrative systems accordingly. It is also reasonable to strongly restrict outward expansion, which was naturally considered during times of population growth. However, among local governments experiencing population decline in Korea, none respond in this way.

Many local governments still actively allow new residential complexes in peripheral areas or various development activities. Almost no local governments establish urban plans anticipating future population decline. Cases of proactive measures, such as designating undeveloped urbanization planned sites as preservation areas, are also very rare.

A bigger problem is the strong tendency to regard population decline solely as a crisis for the civil service organization. In February last year, Sangju City in Gyeongbuk Province staged a spectacle where all civil servants wore mourning clothes after the population fell below 100,000. Sangju stated that if the population does not recover within two years after dropping below 100,000, one department will be cut and the deputy mayor’s rank will be downgraded from grade 3 to grade 4, which they considered a major issue, yet they did not mention the inconveniences citizens might face as a result. The reality of Korean local governments is that they perceive issues affecting only about 10 grade 4 senior officials?less than 1% of all civil servants?as problems for the entire local government.

Globally, shrinkage and decline of small and medium-sized cities are widespread phenomena. Detroit, once famous as the center of the automobile industry in the United States, saw its population drop from 1.85 million in 1950 to 680,000 in 2018. Despite offering tax breaks to attract companies and investing in urban revitalization such as new building construction and light rail openings, Detroit eventually declared bankruptcy in 2013. The city accepted the reality of shrinkage and, through citizen participation, shifted urban planning to include selecting investment restraint zones, reorganizing urban service delivery systems, demolishing abandoned houses, and converting land use, enabling remaining residents to receive basic administrative services and live comfortably. This was a measure to mitigate the speed and impact of the trend rather than reverse it.

Choi Jun-young, Senior Advisor at Yulchon LLC

In Germany, after reunification, investments to rebuild the former East Germany were expanded without sufficient review, leading to new housing complexes being built on the outskirts of existing cities. This accelerated hollowing out of city centers in the 2000s, resulting in over one million vacant homes, bankruptcies of construction companies, and a housing market collapse. The German federal government lowered vacancy rates and stabilized the housing market by providing subsidies for demolition as a drastic measure. Municipalities including Leipzig worked hard to form various partnerships to effectively use the land after demolition. This slowed the pace of population decline and urban shrinkage, and most importantly, enabled maintenance of citizens’ quality of life and preparation for the future. Cities pursuing shrinkage-oriented urban strategies commonly prioritized citizen participation and consensus building and strived to establish diverse collaborative governance.

Similar Local Candidates Every General Election
Flood of Regional Development and Budget Increase Promises
Time to Break Away from Regional Development Repertoire
Solutions Found in Regional Integration and Cooperation

The first step to respond to the shrinkage era is to 'acknowledge shrinkage.' Just as people inevitably age from youth to old age, cities also inevitably follow this path. Rather than forcibly trying to return to the past, it is necessary to accept shrinkage and concentrate all efforts to ensure citizens do not feel inconvenienced. However, we are accustomed to denying the immediate reality and blaming external factors for its causes and responsibilities.

The solution lies in cooperation and integration between regions. If Gyeongbuk Sangju City merges with neighboring Mungyeong City, it could become a local government with a population of 170,000 and a budget of 1.5 trillion won. A local government managing nearly 10 million won per capita budget can accomplish much. However, such discussions never arise, neither normally nor during elections. All problems are simply attributed to insufficient support.

Even if the term 'local extinction' is exaggerated, shrinking cities are a reality, and adaptation and preparation cannot be delayed. This is the reality, yet none of the candidates or parties running in the general election talk about it. We all know well that the current scene of countless development pledges will repeat exactly four years from now. Isn’t it time to break away from the endless election-stage repertoire of development, more budget, and regional advancement?