General Election D-13, Now the Variable Is Candidate Unification

[Asia Economy Reporter Won Dara] With the official election campaign underway, attention is focusing on candidate unification efforts between the ruling and opposition parties. While the ruling coalition, including the Democratic Party, shows slow progress in unification, the main opposition party, the United Future Party, appears to be reaching unification agreements relatively quickly.

First, within the Democratic Party, candidates Min Byung-doo (Dongdaemun-eul) and Moon Seok-gyun (Uijeongbu-gap), who left the party and are running as independents, are showing significant influence. According to an Ipsos poll (March 28-30), Democratic Party candidate Jang Kyung-tae (31.3%), United Future Party candidate Lee Hye-hoon (28.3%), and Min Byung-doo (24.8%) are in a close race. (Survey of 500 voters aged 18 and over via landline and mobile phone interviews, response rate 16.1%, margin of error ±4.4%p at 95% confidence level)

Since the results are within the margin of error, if votes split between Jang and Min, Lee's chances of winning are also considered possible. Previously, Min stated in his announcement of leaving the party and running as an independent, "If I don't seem likely to be first, I will support the Democratic Party's young candidate."

In Uijeongbu-gap, according to a Realmeter poll (March 28-29), candidate Oh Young-hwan leads with 42.6%, United Future Party candidate Kang Se-chang has 31.7%, and Moon Seok-gyun has 11.5%. (Survey of 517 voters aged 18 and over via landline and mobile phone interviews, response rate 7.5%, margin of error ±4.3%p at 95% confidence level)

Although Oh widened the gap over Kang, if Moon's support rises, a close race within the margin of error is inevitable. However, Moon's camp made a strong statement at the press conference announcing his departure and independent candidacy, saying "The Democratic Party's nomination of Oh disregards the citizens of Uijeongbu," suggesting that unification is unlikely.

Unification among ruling coalition candidates is also a point to watch. The Justice Party has distanced itself by criticizing the Democratic Party's participation in the proportional representation alliance, but in Changwon Seongsan, where unification was achieved in last year's by-election, there is a possibility of unification. Justice Party candidate Yeo Young-guk appeared on MBC radio this morning and said, "If unification does not happen, the United Future Party candidate is likely to win. I proposed unification." When asked if unification must be decided by Friday, he replied, "Yes." However, candidate Lee Heung-seok said on the radio this morning, "Having conceded for 20 years, I hope to vote for a Democratic Party candidate at least once in my life."

Sim Sang-jung, running in Goyang-gap, and Yoon So-ha, the floor leader running in Mokpo, have stated that they will complete their campaigns without unification for now.

On the other hand, the United Future Party is showing a relatively proactive stance on candidate unification. In Gyeonggi Paju-gap, preliminary candidate Ko Jun-ho, who was considering running as an independent, decided to unify with United Future Party preliminary candidate Shin Bo-ra. In Chungnam Cheonan, former Army General Park Chan-joo, who declared an independent run after losing the United Future Party nomination, gave up and agreed to unify with United Future Party candidate Lee Jung-man.

Furthermore, in Seoul Guro-eul and Yeongdeungpo-eul, Incheon Seo-gu-eul, and Chungnam Dangjin, unification between party candidates and independent candidates will be decided through public opinion polls. In Guro-eul, candidates Kim Yong-tae and Kang Yo-sik will hold a unification primary. In Yeongdeungpo-eul, Lee Jung-hyun, a former Saenuri Party candidate (predecessor of the United Future Party), is running as an independent, and unification talks with United Future Party candidate Park Yong-chan are ongoing. In Chungnam Dangjin, unification discussions are underway between United Future Party candidate Kim Dong-wan and independent candidate Jung Yong-seon.

In Incheon Dong- and Michuhol-eul, attention is focused on unification between incumbent lawmakers Ahn Sang-soo and Yoon Sang-hyun. Although Ahn received the United Future Party nomination, Yoon, as the incumbent in the district, has considerable support. According to an R&Search poll (March 29-30), Yoon leads with 37.2%, Democratic Party candidate Nam Young-hee has 29.8%, and Ahn has 16.9%. (Survey of 554 voters aged 18 and over via landline and mobile phone interviews, response rate 2.1%, margin of error ±4.2% at 95% confidence level)