[Young People] Is the 'COVID-19' Crisis Over by June?

Tourists are seen around St. Peter's Square in Vatican City, Rome, amid the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Is it because some people are not wearing masks? Italy has become the country most affected by COVID-19.
[Photo by EPA/Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jong-hwa] The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the global economy into a groggy state. Is there ever a time when the phrase "Chunrae Bulsachun (春來不似春)"?meaning "spring comes but is unlike spring"?fits better? Although spring has already arrived, won't the true spring come only after COVID-19 recedes?

Contrary to the term "global village," the entire world has locked its doors. Streets in bustling cities are turning into ghost towns due to school closures and large-scale gathering restrictions. Spring has come, but people cannot feel it. When will the global village return to its ordinary daily life? Or, is it even possible to return to those times?

◆ Not an 'End' but a 'Calm'

According to a recent report by the British media BBC, the COVID-19 virus will not disappear, and if current restrictions suppressing the virus spread are lifted, confirmed cases may surge sharply. In reality, the virus does not vanish; it remains with humanity. Therefore, it should be seen not as an 'end' but as a 'calm.'

However, to achieve this calm, an 'exit strategy' that allows lifting current restrictions and returning to daily life must be prepared, but the lack of a proper exit strategy is problematic. BBC points out that escaping this confusion requires vaccines, herd immunity, individual attitudes, and permanent societal changes.

It is expected to take at least 12 to 18 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is available. Recently, the first person in the United States received a clinical trial vaccine. Although animal testing is normally a prerequisite, this step was skipped due to urgency. Vaccines induce immunity. People vaccinated will not contract the infectious disease even if exposed to the virus again.

When about 60% of the population gains immunity, the infectious disease does not spread. This state is called 'herd immunity (natural immunity).' Most of the population must be infected, and about 60% of them must develop immunity, slowing the disease's spread and reducing its destructive power for herd immunity to be achieved.

The very quiet scene at the arrival hall of Incheon International Airport. This is the aftermath of COVID-19. If this situation continues for another month or two, won't the global economy face an ice age?
[Photo by Moon Honam, Asia Economy]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that 70% of the German population and over 50% of the U.S. population could be infected with COVID-19, considering the possibility of herd immunity. In such cases, about 0.1 to 3% of infected individuals may die or suffer fatal injuries, but once a certain portion of the total population is infected, most people develop immunity, leading to the calming of COVID-19.

◆ At Least 12 Months for Vaccine, 2 Years for Herd Immunity... A Very Long Tunnel

Scientists generally estimate this period to be about two years. Can we endure two more years when even one or two months are hard to bear? If so, can various restrictions to curb COVID-19 spread be made permanent? While not all measures can be permanent, some may be maintained.

This could include strict testing and patient isolation for any occurrence. It calls for permanent changes in individual attitudes and society. However, this is not expected to be easy to implement.

According to Professor Kang Sun-joo of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, who recently published "The International Political Economy Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic," although the pandemic is a global phenomenon requiring a global response, countries are responding independently more than ever. This reveals the latent risks of globalization that had been overlooked until now.

Professor Kang cites Italy and the European Union (EU) as representative cases. Italy is currently the country suffering the greatest losses in Europe due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, European countries integrated into the EU are not supporting Italy.

Regarding this, Professor Kang analyzed, "It could be speculated that many European countries are in similarly difficult situations, or it could be because European integration is not as robust as thought, as seen in recent refugee crises and Brexit."

◆ Global Response Needed but Countries Busy Fending for Themselves Ignore It

Ultimately, it is difficult to gather countries busy with self-help to establish global guidelines such as "testing and isolating suspected patients at airports." In other words, the World Health Organization (WHO) is not fulfilling its role properly.

The Korean stock market collapsed due to COVID-19. On the 20th, the KOSPI index, KOSDAQ index, and the won-dollar exchange rate plummeted to record lows.
[Photo by Moon Honam, Asia Economy]

Although this is the global atmosphere, domestic experts predict that the situation will gradually calm after June, and from July, the domestic economy could recover to about 70-80% of normal levels. However, one obstacle is the parliamentary election scheduled for April 15. There are concerns that if the government lifts restrictions on group and religious events around the election, a mass infection outbreak could occur again.

Summarizing media reports, Europe and the U.S. are still in the early stages, but China and South Korea seem to be entering a calming phase. It inevitably comes down to 'calm.' Even if the COVID-19 situation calms, returning to the same daily life as before will be difficult.

This opportunity should be used to deeply realize the fear of infectious diseases and prepare accordingly. Although somewhat inconvenient, it is an appropriate time for permanent changes in individuals and society. We must not become insensitive to crises.

The stock market accurately reflects the true nature of our market. These days, retail investors are sustaining a plummeting market reduced to ashes. Because such situations have repeated in our market, people nowadays do not trust so-called economic experts' forecasts. However, we sincerely hope that experts' predictions of calming from June will come true.