[Yang Nakgyu's Defense Club] Four Reasons for Possible Additional Provocations by North Korea

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] North Korea, which fired a super-large multiple rocket launcher again within a week, is highly likely to carry out additional projectile provocations, experts say. Military specialists analyze that the basis for the possibility of further provocations lies in the operational deployment of the super-large multiple rocket launcher and the multi-purpose intentions surrounding domestic and international justification amid the aftermath of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation.

Korean Central News Agency reported on the 10th that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, once again supervised the firepower strike training of frontline long-range artillery units on the 9th. The report added that this training was "aimed at checking the sudden military counterstrike capability of the frontline long-range artillery units," and it was conducted by artillery units rather than the strategic forces operating missiles. This means that the 600mm-class super-large multiple rocket launcher has already been deployed in frontline units. When North Korea first test-fired the super-large multiple rocket launcher on August 24 last year, the interval between consecutive shots was 17 minutes. However, on the 2nd and 9th of this month, it was reduced to 20 seconds.

However, the final goal was not achieved. The super-large multiple rocket launcher shown in the photos released by North Korea on that day consisted of four launch tubes mounted on a wheeled transporter erector launcher (TEL). North Korea appears to be repeatedly conducting training to steadily shorten the firing time to launch four rocket launchers consecutively. If this training succeeds, it would be possible to fire all four ballistic missiles from the mobile launcher within one minute, meaning a surprise attack would be fully feasible.

However, the photos released by North Korean media on that day confirmed that only two launch tubes were opened. In other words, while the first and second shots were fired with the super-large multiple rocket launcher achieving the 20-second interval, it is also possible to analyze that the third shot was fired with a different type of multiple rocket launcher. If the third shot was with the super-large multiple rocket launcher, it can be considered a failure of the triple consecutive firing. Accordingly, additional test firings are deemed inevitable.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "While two consecutive shots were successful, the capability for field operation seems insufficient," and predicted, "Additional firing tests will likely be conducted to verify the ability to fire four consecutive shots and field operation capability."

There are also claims that additional training is inevitable as Chairman Kim has been visiting the East Sea firing range consecutively to avoid the spread of COVID-19 in Pyongyang. To block COVID-19, North Korea also operated a special flight for foreigner transport within Pyongyang to Vladivostok, Russia, on the 9th (local time). Chairman Kim usually spends summer vacations at his private villa, the Special Pavilion, located in Wonsan. However, staying in the East Sea area for over ten days during winter is unusual.

The emphasis by Korean Central News Agency on the "sudden inspection" is also noteworthy. It indicates that the training was not scheduled but conducted under Kim's orders. The absence of other officials besides Army General Pak Jong-chon, the Chief of the General Staff, seems to be a measure to minimize concerns about COVID-19 infection.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam University said, "Chairman Kim's prolonged stay in the Wonsan area appears related to the COVID-19 situation in Pyongyang," adding, "Creating the justification of being away from Pyongyang for a long time due to firing training is a normal governing act that avoids misunderstandings." This analysis suggests an intention to consolidate the internally disrupted system due to COVID-19 and to demonstrate resilience.

With both North Korea and the U.S. replacing their negotiation teams, concerns have arisen that the U.S. may have lost interest in the negotiations themselves, and there are claims that provocations aimed at attracting attention will continue. This takes into account the recent situation where U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Taliban leaders, indicating that North Korea issues have been excluded from priority concerns.