Chinese Researchers: "If Hubei Province Lockdown Had Been 5 Days Earlier, Patient Numbers Would Be One-Third of Current Level"

Zhong Nanshan, the top authority on respiratory diseases in China and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering

[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki-min Lee] A Chinese research team has analyzed that if the lockdown of Hubei Province, China, the origin of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), had been implemented five days earlier, the number of patients would have been reduced by two-thirds.

According to Caixin on the 8th, the research team led by Zhong Nanshan, a top authority on respiratory diseases and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, estimated in a paper recently published in the Journal of Thoracic Disease that if the isolation of Hubei Province from other regions had been implemented five days earlier, the number of infected people would not have exceeded 25,000, which is one-third of the current figure. Currently, the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients across China is about 80,000.

Zhong Nanshan's research team also predicted that if the government's intervention had been delayed by five days, the number of patients would have tripled from the current scale.

Wuhan City in Hubei Province began the city lockdown on January 23, one day before the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) holiday. Other cities in Hubei Province followed with similar measures. However, it is estimated that 5 million people had already left Wuhan before the lockdown.

Some regions outside Hubei Province also implemented city lockdown measures.

The research team recommended that Hubei Province continue strong quarantine measures.