[Economic Outlook] COVID-19 Employment Impact, Government Economic Assessment in Focus

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Eun-byeol] This week, attention is expected to focus on how the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has impacted employment indicators. There is also interest in how much national tax revenue was collected in January this year and how the government will assess the economic impact of COVID-19.

The Statistics Korea will announce the 'February 2020 Employment Trends' on the 11th.

In January, the increase in the number of employed persons exceeded 560,000, marking the largest gain in 5 years and 5 months. The employment rate was also the highest for the month of January since monthly statistics began in July 1982. With the spread of COVID-19 intensifying from February, attention is focused on how it has affected employment indicators.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance will publish the March issue of the Recent Economic Trends (Green Book) on the 13th.

Previously, in the February Green Book, the Ministry evaluated that if COVID-19 spreads widely or the situation prolongs, the improvement trend of the Korean economy could be constrained. This month, attention is on how the economic impact of COVID-19 will be assessed.

Prior to this, on the 10th, the Ministry will disclose how much national tax revenue was collected in January in the March issue of the Monthly Fiscal Trends.

On the following day, the 11th, the Bank of Korea will release statistics on financial market trends for February.

Considering the roughly two-month lag between housing sales contracts and funding demand, it is possible that the sharp upward trend in housing loans observed in recent months continued through February.

In January, housing loans from banks increased by 4.3 trillion won, the largest increase for January since related statistics began in 2004. However, from March, when the effects of the December 16 real estate measures are expected to be fully reflected in loan demand, the increase in housing loans is likely to slow down.

On the 12th, the Bank of Korea will submit the Monetary and Credit Policy Report, which includes recent monetary and credit policy conditions and future policy directions, to the National Assembly. The report covers the period since November last year. It is expected to include analysis of the real economy effects following the interest rate cuts in July and October last year. The Monetary and Credit Policy Report is prepared and submitted to the National Assembly four times a year.

On the 13th, the Bank of Korea will release the February export and import price indices. Export prices fell 2.7% compared to the same month last year, continuing a decline for eight consecutive months. This was influenced by the continued price drop of semiconductors, a major export item.