[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Joint Exercises Halted... Any Impact on Wartime Operational Control Transfer?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] South Korea and the United States have decided to postpone the joint military exercises scheduled for early March due to the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). This is the first time that infectious diseases have affected the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

Kim Jun-rak, Director of Public Affairs at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Lee Peters, Public Affairs Officer of the U.S. side of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, announced jointly at the Ministry of National Defense on the 27th, stating, "As the South Korean government has raised the COVID-19 crisis level to 'serious,' it has been decided to postpone the Combined Forces Command's first half-year combined command post exercise until further notice."

The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Combined Forces Command explained, "The will of the U.S. Forces Korea and the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff toward the ROK-U.S. alliance remains ironclad, and the decision to postpone the joint exercise was not made lightly," adding, "Despite this postponement, the ROK-U.S. alliance will continue to provide strong military deterrence against any threats to the defense of the Republic of Korea and maintain a robust combined defense posture."

Although the South Korea-U.S. military authorities announced the postponement of the exercises, some analyses suggest that the first half-year exercises have effectively been canceled, considering the domestic spread of COVID-19 and future schedules. It is difficult to predict when COVID-19 will end, and taking into account other training schedules, it is unlikely that the command post exercise will be rescheduled and conducted in the first half of the year.

The decision to postpone the joint exercises was made because the spread of COVID-19 within the military has not been easily contained. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the military increased by one on the day. Currently, there are 21 confirmed cases: 14 in the Army, 2 in the Navy (including 1 Marine), and 5 in the Air Force. As of 6 p.m. on the 26th, approximately 9,540 personnel are in quarantine within the military to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (about 540 under health authority-mandated quarantine and about 9,000 under preventive quarantine), approaching 10,000.

The U.S. Forces Korea initially planned to reduce the scale of the joint exercises but decided to postpone them after a confirmed COVID-19 case occurred among U.S. military personnel stationed in Korea. On the 26th, the U.S. Forces Korea announced that a 23-year-old male soldier stationed at Camp Carroll in Waegwan-eup, Chilgok-gun, Gyeongbuk Province, tested positive for COVID-19. This is the first confirmed case among U.S. Forces Korea personnel. The spread of COVID-19 to U.S. Forces Korea has also caused concern on the U.S. side.

If COVID-19 spreads further within U.S. Forces Korea, it will inevitably affect their operational capabilities. Camp Carroll is known to store interceptors and related equipment for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system deployed at Seongju base. There is a possibility that THAAD operations could be disrupted. Especially if the joint exercises proceed, about 500 troops participating in the training would spend extended periods in bunkers, potentially putting command facilities at risk.

South Korea and the U.S. maintain that postponing the joint exercises will not affect the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) scheduled within the current administration's term. The originally planned exercises next month aimed to address shortcomings identified in the verification of the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) of the future combined command conducted last year. The verification of Full Operational Capability (FOC) is planned to be pursued in the second half-year joint exercises.

Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo, currently on an official visit to the United States, said after delivering a speech to students and faculty at the U.S. National Defense University in Washington D.C. on the same day, "I do not believe that canceling one training or exercise weakens military readiness," adding, "The combined defense posture is already solid and advanced, so even without face-to-face interaction, we can respond well through the Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I) system."

In 2018, South Korea and the U.S. postponed their joint exercises due to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics, conducting them in April of that year instead. The Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises, originally scheduled for early March 2017, were postponed to April 2018 because President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed not to conduct joint exercises during the Olympic period.