US Expert: "COVID-19 Lockdowns Impossible... Over 70% of Global Population May Be Infected"

Harvard Professor Mark Lipsitch
"COVID-19 Spread Unstoppable Due to Asymptomatic Infections and Other Characteristics"
Most Cases Mild or Asymptomatic...Not All Are Dangerous
"Flu Season May Turn into Flu and COVID-19 Season"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] "Ultimately, it is impossible to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Within one year, 40-70% of the global population will be infected with COVID-19."

Mark Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, made this prediction on the 24th (local time) through the American current affairs magazine The Atlantic. Unlike Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), COVID-19 has a lower fatality rate and the possibility of asymptomatic transmission, making it ultimately impossible to contain.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

However, he emphasized that "(40-70% of the global population being infected) does not mean that everyone will suffer from severe illness." Professor Lipsitch mentioned, "For many people, the illness may be mild or they may not even realize they were sick." In fact, Chinese researchers announced that while COVID-19 can cause severe cases depending on age and underlying conditions, most cases were mild. Although it can be a fatal disease that takes lives for some, for most people it can pass like the flu without needing to visit a hospital. The Atlantic added that 14% of flu patients live without even knowing they were infected.

According to The Atlantic, besides Professor Lipsitch, many scholars foresee COVID-19 becoming an epidemic that recurs in the future. Just as we have commonly used the phrase "cold and flu season," it will become a situation where people say "cold, flu, and COVID-19 season."

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Within the medical community, it is considered difficult to prevent COVID-19 infection. This is because, as confirmed in cases from China and other countries, there is a possibility of transmission from people who do not show symptoms and are unaware that they are infected with COVID-19. In fact, Chinese medical staff have disclosed cases of patients whose lung CT scans appeared normal. Researchers concluded that "unless asymptomatic infection is a very rare case, it has become very difficult to prevent COVID-19 infection." In contrast, SARS and MERS had very few cases of asymptomatic infection.