[Deputy Manager Column] 'Rational' Doubt

As concerns over the spread of COVID-19 grow, citizens wearing masks are commuting at the Gwanghwamun intersection in Seoul on the 24th. Photo by Mun Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Osangdo] Eight people awakened from capsules due to a sleep device malfunction. They encounter each other in an empty spaceship without knowing why. These are people who boarded the spaceship to migrate to a new planet. However, what they face instead of a fresh start is an alien life form that parasitizes the brain using humans as hosts. This monster has the ability to control the human brain. The problem is that no one knows which of the eight is infected by the alien life form. They suspect and guard against each other, unable to lower their guard.

This is the plot of the YouTube drama "Origin," which has 2 billion viewers. Although it is an SF drama, the situation of suspicion and caution among people resonates with the current reality in South Korea.

There is a saying called "kiu" (杞憂), meaning "unnecessary worry," but looking back at the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a regret that excessive concerns and worries were needed. Just looking at the statements of government and ruling party officials who were preoccupied with promoting the excellence of the government's quarantine system in the early stages of the outbreak without understanding the ecology of infectious diseases shows this. As soon as some media criticized this as self-praise, the situation rapidly worsened.

Such nationwide spread was something any expert who understands the nature of infectious diseases could have predicted. It may also mean that the government did not listen enough to expert opinions.

Recall the 2015 MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak. In early June of that relatively early year, the number of confirmed cases was around 30. Until then, the government did not see the possibility of spread as very high. However, in less than a week, the number of confirmed cases soared nearly fivefold to about 150. This was the inflection point where the numbers rapidly increased. This time too, active medical professionals expressed concerns that infections would explode through super-spreaders. Those voices were simply drowned out by the government's self-praise.

The problem starts now. China's outbreak statistics report the COVID-19 fatality rate as only 2.4%. This is an unbelievable figure. According to citizen journalist Chen Chusu, who has been exposing the authorities' response in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, the number of confirmed cases announced by the government was only a portion of the total infected due to a shortage of diagnostic kits. Also, many people reportedly died at home due to a lack of hospital beds.

Some suggest that COVID-19, which mutates by 1-2% each time it passes through an individual patient, may have mutated completely differently from its initial outbreak. This is why optimism about vaccine or treatment development is not warranted.

Even now, rational suspicion is necessary. Even with Korea's globally recognized quarantine system, it must be redesigned from scratch, and premature optimism should be avoided. To survive from the "enemy of humanity," who can infect others in the early stages without special symptoms, one must suspect, and suspect again.