4500 or 100,000 Wuhan Pneumonia Cases? Fear Spreads Amid Fluctuating Statistics

[Asia Economy Reporter Shinwon Yoon] The statistics on infections of the novel coronavirus disease known as 'Wuhan pneumonia' vary widely, intensifying public fear.

According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) as of 9 a.m. on the 28th, the total confirmed cases worldwide reached 4,572, with 106 deaths. Among them, 4,515 cases were in China, the origin of the disease, and 4 cases were confirmed in South Korea.

However, according to research published by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of Wuhan pneumonia infections is 4,474, with 107 deaths.

Additionally, analyses by health experts from the UK, Hong Kong, and other regions suggest that the number of pneumonia-related infections far exceeds the figures reported by Chinese health authorities and the KCDC, causing global anxiety.

On the 26th (local time), the British newspaper The Guardian reported that Neil Ferguson, a public health expert and professor at Imperial College London, estimated the current global number of Wuhan pneumonia infections to be around 100,000.

He stated, "Although no confirmed cases have yet appeared in the UK, we will soon have cases. It is certain that many people have been infected. The number is likely between 30,000 and 200,000."

Professor Ferguson expressed concern that unlike SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Wuhan pneumonia infections may show no symptoms, making it possible for cases to go undetected by surveillance systems. He analyzed that asymptomatic carriers with mild symptoms may not realize they are infected and could spread the virus to others.

Furthermore, Professor Gabriel Leung, who leads the Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control Center at the University of Hong Kong, predicted that approximately 25,000 people?nearly five times the number reported by Chinese authorities?are infected, with about 44,000 in the incubation period.

Professor Leung said, "Without public health interventions, the number of infections will double every six days. There is a high possibility of a major outbreak in Chongqing, China, which has a population exceeding 30 million and is adjacent to Wuhan."