"New Coronavirus, Hundreds of Thousands May Be Infected in April-May" Global Pandemic Warning (Comprehensive)

China mentions possible transmission through physical contact without detailed explanation
"New coronavirus spreads faster than SARS"

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi, Reporter Na Ju-seok] It has been diagnosed that the transmission speed of the novel coronavirus infection, known as 'Wuhan pneumonia,' between humans is much faster than during SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). China has also revealed that the novel coronavirus can be transmitted through physical contact alone.

Feng Zijian, Deputy Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, appeared on the China Central Television (CCTV) program 'News 1+1' on the night of the 27th and said regarding the rapid increase in confirmed Wuhan pneumonia cases in China, "This virus has a relatively strong ability to transmit between people."

He explained, "The first patient of the novel coronavirus appeared on December 8 last year, and it took about 40 days to reach the 500th patient, but it took only two days for an additional 500 cases to occur. It also took about 40 days to reach the first 1,000 patients, but more than 1,000 additional infections occurred in just two days. It took only one day to go from 2,000 to 3,000 cases."

Deputy Director Feng said, "During the concentrated travel period of the Spring Festival (Chinese Lunar New Year holiday), people are moving out of Wuhan, where the infection situation is severe, to other regions, accelerating the speed and expanding the range of virus transmission," adding, "The transmission ability of the novel coronavirus is comparable to SARS, with an average patient infecting 2 to 3 others."

He added, "However, while it takes about 9 days for SARS cases to double, the novel coronavirus doubles in about 6 to 7 days," and "Because the doubling period of the novel coronavirus is shorter, the increase in confirmed cases is relatively faster."

He also said, "People who have visited areas with severe infectious disease outbreaks, such as Wuhan City, need to self-isolate at home for about 14 days," and "Wearing masks, measuring body temperature, and taking immediate action when abnormal symptoms appear are behaviors that help prevent the spread of the virus. Although it is difficult to predict the transmission trend with certainty in the current situation, we expect it can be effectively controlled."

Concerns have also been raised that the novel coronavirus could spread rapidly, infecting hundreds of thousands by April and May.

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), Professor Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong's Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control has already estimated that the number of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan exceeds 40,000.

Professor Leung said, "Without public health measures, the number of infections will double every 6.2 days," and "We must prepare for the possibility of a global pandemic." He predicted that if the virus spreads from Wuhan to the adjacent major city of Chongqing, it could further spread to Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities. If it moves to Chongqing, there could be 150,000 infections per day, and in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, there could be more than 20,000 to 60,000 infections.

He forecasted that the novel coronavirus would weaken only after the peak period in April and May, around June and July.

Professor Leung believes that extreme measures are necessary to prevent the worst-case scenario. Measures such as controlling people's movement, canceling public events, closing schools, and encouraging working from home should be implemented.

Meanwhile, China has announced that the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia) can be transmitted through physical contact alone. The People's Daily of China reported on Twitter that the novel coronavirus can be transmitted by physical contact alone. Earlier, the National Health Commission of China announced that the novel coronavirus spreads through saliva and secretions at close distances.

Details on how the novel coronavirus transmits through physical contact have not been disclosed. For existing viruses, it is known that transmission occurs through droplets, which are tiny water droplets expelled from the mouth during coughing or sneezing, such as saliva and secretions.