[Tokkanoeko General Election] Thirsty People... Is Ahn Cheol-soo OOO?

[The political scene ahead of the election is always full of various strategies and possible outcomes. It is difficult to easily understand what is going on inside.

As the April general election approaches, political reporters from Asia Economy covering Yeouido and election scenes across the country have a roundtable discussion. 'Roundtable' means 'talking freely without hesitation as thoughts come to mind.' It's like saying, 'Let's speak frankly.' Of course, even reporters cannot know everything in detail. But since they cover politics up close and thinking about politics is their job, they can read a bit more of the underlying atmosphere and nuances.

The primary purpose was to share flows that cannot be captured in articles among reporters, but they also aim to faithfully serve as accessible information providers to readers. They hope to broaden understanding of the general election scene and even serve as a small 'think tank' in drinking party debates. Above all, they hope to contribute to having affection that supports the 'lesser evil' or 'second best' instead of useless political hatred. (For smoother conversation, nicknames are used. Since the lively conversational style is conveyed as is, honorifics may be omitted.)]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Dolpa = A poll showed that if the Liberty Korea Party and the New Conservative Party merge to form a party, their support rate is about 10 percentage points lower than the current support rates of each party. How should we interpret this?

◆Jeongalmot = The conservative camp has fragmented a lot, so maybe many people are not satisfied with just a simple merger. The current momentum for integration is 'anti-Moon Jae-in.' But it seems there is public sentiment asking for something more to be shown besides that. Integration alone is not the answer. Since they are not recruiting Ahn Cheol-soo either, it seems they are not inspiring conservative supporters.

◆Dolpa = Among the 10% who dropped off, some probably dislike the merger itself, some think the size of the merger looks too small, and some are mixed. The current flow is that the Our Republican Party is excluded, and the New Conservative Party, the Liberty Korea Party, and some conservative civil society groups will combine, but the effect of integration may be diminished. Ahn Cheol-soo is not going. Politically, the 'Cho Kuk incident' seems to have been an opportunity for Ahn Cheol-soo because some Democratic Party supporters are defecting.

◆Seoul Saram = As expected, it's still Cho Kuk in the election.

◆Jeongalmot = Because the Blue House continues to hold on to Cho Kuk. The backlash against that creates space for Ahn Cheol-soo. People who support Ahn Cheol-soo now dislike both the Liberty Korea Party and the Democratic Party and feel something new is needed. Even if they don't particularly like Ahn Cheol-soo, they might want to place some hope in him.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = The reporters' evaluations haven't changed at all from before. He keeps making ambiguous statements and calls himself a centrist pragmatic party but doesn't explain specifically what that means.

◆Yeouido TMI = Is that a strategy?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = He has been speaking ambiguously for a long time.

◆Dolpa = It must be frustrating.

◆Jeongalmot = It feels like he's saying, 'Let's all live kindly.'

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Sim Sang-jung criticized Ahn Cheol-soo during the fast-track process, asking where he was and what he was doing, and that seems right. Ahn Cheol-soo said the fast-track issue should have been resolved through dialogue, but while that sounds easy, how possible was it in that situation? It seems like he talks about things far from reality.

(Former leader Ahn met reporters at a rest stop on May 20 while visiting the 5·18 Democratic Cemetery and said about the 4+1 coalition (Democratic Party, Bareunmirae Party, Justice Party, Party for Democracy and Peace + Alternative Party) bill processing, "Forcing things through with power is not the best way," and "It is better to persuade as much as possible and if you cannot take a step forward, at least take a half step back and then reach an agreement, which is more desirable than taking a step forward.")

◆Dolpa = People who fight don't want to fight. They do it because they have no choice.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Whether Ahn Cheol-soo forms a new party or stays in the Bareunmirae Party, I think it will be difficult for him to gain high support. Maybe barely enough to form a parliamentary negotiation group?

◆Jeongalmot = It's not just ambiguous words, but doesn't he lack his own policies? Lee Jae-myung has a somewhat rough image and is divisive, but he has his own policies. Ahn Cheol-soo has been called 'the kind Lee Myung-bak,' but MB also did various things.

◆Dolpa = That famous self-defeating move comes to mind. Am I MB's avatar? (laughs) How does it feel when you cover him up close?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = He seems a bit excited. Reporters talk like that among themselves.

◆Dolpa = Someone who will save the frustrating reality? Has he appeared?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = He says he will catch the political virus with a vaccine.

◆Yeouido TMI = Ahn Cheol-soo is becoming someone who has been in politics for a long time now.

◆Jeongchi 3-dan = Looking back, Ahn Cheol-soo always seemed to want to be the main character since the presidential election. When he merged with Moon Jae-in, when he formed the People's Party. I think he never intended to participate in conservative integration from the start. Because he can't be just one of them. So I think he will form a new party.

Former Bareunmirae Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo is shaking hands with former People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy Executive Director Kim Kyung-yul at Dalgaebi in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 21st. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

◆Dolpa = The Ahn Dong theory?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Everything should revolve around Ahn Cheol-soo? (laughs) But first, there is a final negotiation with Son Hak-gyu. They are meeting the Bareunmirae Party on the 28th. It seems there is still room for him to stay in Bareunmirae Party.

◆Dolpa = Didn't Son Hak-gyu say he would give Ahn Cheol-soo everything he wants if he comes?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = He hasn't said he will step down as leader. So there will be a final negotiation.

◆Dolpa = Should we see the merger of the Party for Democracy and Peace and Bareunmirae Party as a natural step?

◆Seoul Saram = Son Hak-gyu and Chung Dong-young recently had dinner together. It seems the integration talks are ongoing.

◆Dolpa = The third zone has too many possibilities. From Ahn Cheol-soo's point of view, it would be best if the Alternative Party also joins strongly and he becomes the leader.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = But his relationship with Park Ji-won is not good.

◆Seoul Saram = The Alternative Party keeps releasing statements criticizing Ahn Cheol-soo.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = So first, what happens with Ahn Cheol-soo and Bareunmirae Party, then integration talks should follow.

◆Dolpa = Why isn't he running?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = I think he is looking at the big picture for the presidential election. Maybe he is running with the presidential election in mind, not the general election.

◆Dolpa = Could the centrist and nonpartisan voters become Ahn Cheol-soo's territory?

◆Jeongchi 3-dan = That could happen. Because he has experience once before.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Some people might choose him thinking he is the lesser evil.

◆Gukhoe Buljumeok = Many people don't know what kind of political color Ahn Cheol-soo has. They don't know his values, so why would they vote for him? For the third zone to succeed, there must be something that strongly attracts people, but how much can a gray figure appeal? It seems Ahn Cheol-soo lacks his own color.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Honestly, I don't know how to define 'centrist.' Isn't it a concept that doesn't exist politically? Then if you bring five conservative policies and five progressive policies to balance the numbers, is that centrism? What exactly is the centrism Ahn Cheol-soo talks about? Reporters and the public are curious.

◆Seoul Saram = Still, many in the political world have been eagerly waiting for Ahn Cheol-soo's return.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = When Ahn Cheol-soo returned to Korea, I thought it was understandable he was excited. After the press conference, some people blocked his car and shouted they loved him. Some said it was like BTS. (laughs)

◆Dolpa = Let's talk about Honam. Four years ago, there was the so-called Honam neglect theory, and the sentiment that the trusted Democratic Party betrayed them, which the People's Party rode on.

◆Seoul Saram = According to surveys, the Democratic Party is popular in Honam. The Party for Democracy and Peace and the Alternative Party have minimal support. Many say Honam sentiment is not with Ahn Cheol-soo. Even Chung Dong-young is shown losing to the Democratic Party candidate.

◆Gukhoe Buljumeok = I had a meal with a Democratic Party person today, and they are not very worried about Honam. (laughs)

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Still, if it becomes a one-on-one race, the third zone might have a chance.

◆Seoul Saram = There has been a Honam prime minister. From the Democratic Party.

◆Jeongchi 3-dan = Twice in a row, too.

◆Seoul Saram = Many Honam people were promoted in the recent prosecution personnel appointments.

◆Yeouido TMI = It seems Ahn Cheol-soo has no place to stand.

◆Dolpa = The talk about Hwang Kyo-ahn running proportionally is coming up again.

◆Yeouido TMI = Right. He opened the possibility of proportional representation. I didn't know it could be opened and closed so easily. (laughs) He didn't say he would run proportionally, but left the possibility open.

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = Both Hwang Kyo-ahn and Ahn Cheol-soo say 'party first, then personal ambition.' To raise party support, going to a proportional number corresponding to the target vote rate and running proportionally could be a strategy. But with a low number.

◆Yeouido TMI = Even if he runs proportionally, it could be tough. The last number might be harder than winning a district. But he won't take the last number. Maybe a middle number? (laughs)

◆Jeongchi 3-dan = He was a bit frustrated not being a parliamentary member. I know he has a strong will to enter the National Assembly. Although he doesn't say it openly, there are talks like 'he's a wireless (non-parliamentary) politician,' and he knows being in the Assembly gives more influence, so his will must be strong this time.

◆Dolpa = As a politician, you need confirmed support. Do you still think the possibility of going to a satellite party for proportional representation is unlikely?

◆Yeouido TMI = If he runs under the proportional party (Future Korea Party) name, he can't campaign under the Korea Party name. So I think they have many concerns.

◆Dolpa = How about conservative integration?

◆Modukkagi Inhyeong = They say they will cross the river of impeachment, but when you get into details, it is a crucial point that could overturn the board. Including whether to include the Our Republican Party.

◆Dolpa = Our Republican Party will receive Park Geun-hye's prison messages. If excluded from integration, they will attack the integrated conservative forces as 'the party that abandoned Park Geun-hye.'

◆Yeouido TMI = Hong Moon-jong said the Korea Party and New Conservative Party will integrate first, then integrate with Our Republican Party in a second phase. Our Republican Party is also divided. There are different positions within.

◆Dolpa = It's complicated. Today's main topic was Ahn Cheol-soo. We confirmed that evaluations are quite harsh. Mirage? You look at it because you're thirsty, but when you go there, there is no water? (laughs) If he fills the inside tightly so he is not called an empty shell, the evaluation can change anytime.