[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] The Decisive Factor in the Deployment Decision

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Our military cited the safety of the people and the guarantee of free navigation of vessels as the reasons for deciding to dispatch troops to the Strait of Hormuz. They decided on a temporary deployment until stability is restored in the Middle East region.

Since Commander Soleimani died at Baghdad International Airport in Iraq, the safety of our citizens has been on a knife-edge. As of December 29 last year, about 1,600 of our citizens were staying in Iraq, about 290 in Iran, about 700 in Israel, and about 150 in Lebanon. If these people become endangered, the deployment of troops to the Middle East region cannot be ruled out.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strait connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, considered an important crude oil transport route. The narrowest section belongs to Iran's territorial waters under international law. Iranian crude oil has not entered the country since April last year, following the U.S. ban on Iranian crude oil imports. According to the Korea Petroleum Association, as of November last year, the domestic crude oil import proportions were Saudi Arabia at 28.2%, Kuwait 14.1%, the United States 12.7%, Iraq 10.9%, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) 7.8%. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq send most of the crude oil, which accounts for 30% of global demand, through the Strait of Hormuz.

Inside and around the Strait of Hormuz, a series of adverse events occurred starting in early May last year with the U.S. military's reinforcement of aircraft carrier groups and bomber squadrons, followed by attacks on four oil tankers (May 12), two oil tankers (June 12), the shooting down of a U.S. military drone (June 20), and the detention of Iranian oil tankers (July 14). Analysts say the atmosphere has become as hostile as during the mid-1980s Iran-Iraq War, known as the "Tanker War," when oil tankers in the Gulf were targeted.

The "Tanker War," triggered by Iraq's attack on Iran's oil export port on Kharg Island in 1984, saw Iran and Iraq attacking third-country commercial vessels carrying oil produced by the opposing side. In response to Iraq's preemptive attack, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. threatened direct military intervention, preventing an actual blockade. Until the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, over four years, mainly Iraqi attacks targeted about 540 commercial vessels, including oil tankers, in the Gulf waters.

Fearing Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has increased sanctions since Iran withdrew from the "Iran nuclear deal" last May, including designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and ending exceptions for Iranian oil imports, while also applying military pressure on Iran.

When the U.S. recently stopped applying exceptions for eight countries temporarily allowed to import Iranian oil earlier this month, Iran warned it would block the Strait of Hormuz, the sea route through which Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries ship oil. Iran also mentioned blocking the Strait of Hormuz when the U.S. reinstated sanctions blocking Iranian oil exports in November 2018. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy has designated the Strait of Hormuz as its "primary operational area," emphasizing Iran's military control over the area. Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, strongly warned, "Every time a U.S. ship enters the Persian Gulf, it will feel like entering hell."

In particular, the Iranian Foreign Ministry recently summoned the South Korean ambassador to Iran and strongly protested, demanding "payment of about 7 trillion won for Iranian crude oil and condensate imports." Conflicts with Iran may worsen due to the overlapping issue of troop deployment to Hormuz. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani opposed the deployment of foreign troops to Hormuz during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September, stating, "If foreign troops are stationed (in Hormuz), security related to navigation and oil distribution will become more dangerous," opposing the deployment by the U.S. and other countries.

The military said, "The 31st Cheonghae Unit's Wang Geon ship is about 1,800 km in a straight line from the Gulf of Aden to the Strait of Hormuz, which can be reached in three days," adding, "If concerns about the safety of our citizens arise, we will consider all possible scenarios and conduct multifaceted reviews."