"North Korea Acknowledges Failure of Nuclear Talks with the U.S... Preparing for a Long-Term Standoff"

Interview with Sangsoo Lee, Director of Korea Center at Sweden Security Development Policy Institute

Skeptical about North Korea-US talks resuming in the short term

Negotiations unlikely to completely break down

Trump impeachment situation is a variable

Early inter-Korean economic cooperation expectations under Moon Jae-in government backfire

Sangsoo Lee, Director of the Korea Center at the Swedish Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP)

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Eun-byeol] "It appears that North Korea has acknowledged the failure of denuclearization talks with the US that have been ongoing for over two years. However, it seems unlikely that the negotiation table will be completely broken. Going forward, North Korea is expected to enter a long-term phase while watching the US impeachment situation and the presidential election."

Lee Sang-soo, head of the Korea Center at the Swedish think tank Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), expressed skepticism about the possibility of North Korea-US denuclearization talks resuming in the short term in an interview with Asia Economy on the 17th. While the deadlock between the two sides continues and the US is signaling for North Korea to return to the negotiation table, North Korea’s stance has largely shifted. US President Donald Trump has stated that he intends to use China as leverage to bring North Korea to the dialogue table, but according to his remarks, the likelihood of this actually happening is low.

The ISDP Korea Center, where Lee is based, is the only Nordic research institute specializing in Korean Peninsula issues. Notably, Sweden is one of the few European countries with an embassy in Pyongyang, and the Swedish embassy there serves as the official US channel for negotiations with North Korea. Sweden is regarded as a country that understands North Korea’s intentions better than most.

Lee said, "Recently, North Korea mentioned a 'new path' at the Workers' Party plenary meeting, which can be interpreted as an acknowledgment of the failure of denuclearization talks and a decision to revise their strategy." This means North Korea has concluded that it will not achieve its long-standing demands for ▲the suspension of South Korea-US military exercises ▲sanctions relief ▲simultaneous implementation of denuclearization and compensation.

However, he believes North Korea will not completely break off negotiations. A major reason is that North Korea’s allies, China and Russia, do not want that either. Instead, North Korea is expected to continue a tug-of-war by conducting localized provocations. Rather than testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), it is anticipated that North Korea will apply pressure on the US through tests of new conventional strategic weapons.

Lee predicted that US domestic politics will be a key factor in future denuclearization talks. If President Trump successfully navigates the impeachment process, he will have the capacity to discuss some easing of sanctions as well as security guarantees for the North Korean regime. He advised North Korea, "If you still consider President Trump as a negotiation partner, you should at least refrain from provocations such as ICBM launches until he gets through the impeachment situation."

Regarding North Korea’s policy of cutting off communication with South Korea while maintaining ties with the US, Lee mentioned that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is greatly disappointed with President Moon Jae-in. Moon’s early push on the North Korean nuclear issue and excessive expectations for inter-Korean economic cooperation during the early days of his administration have backfired. He said, "At present, South Korea’s role is limited," and advised, "Until another opportunity for denuclearization talks arises, South Korea should strengthen its alliance with the US and Japan."