[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will South Korea and the U.S. Play the 'Joint Training Card'?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] South Korea and the United States are facing a dilemma over whether to conduct joint military exercises scheduled for this year. Since last year, South Korea and the U.S. have eliminated or scaled down the three major large-scale exercises that North Korea has opposed: Key Resolve (KR), Foal Eagle (FE), and Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG).

On the 2nd, President Moon Jae-in emphasized at the New Year's joint greeting event held at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Jung-gu, Seoul, that "we will expand the scope of maneuverability in inter-Korean relations." This is interpreted as meaning that there is no immediate consideration of policy shifts that would escalate tensions in inter-Korean relations. Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Choi Hyun-soo also stated on the same day regarding the joint exercises, "There is no change in the stance or policy of coordinating and implementing them closely between South Korea and the U.S. to support diplomatic efforts for denuclearization militarily."

For now, the South Korean military is expected to refrain from large-scale exercises as it did last year. South Korea and the U.S. plan to manage the situation by postponing joint exercises to prevent North Korea from crossing the 'red line' (a line that must not be crossed). However, South Korea and the U.S. intend to conduct small-scale battalion-level joint exercises instead of large-scale ones. They are preparing for joint mine warfare exercises, joint rescue exercises, joint flagship exercises, joint anti-submarine warfare exercises, and maritime special operations (MC-SOF) starting from April this year.

However, if North Korea carries out provocations that cross the red line early this year, the scale of joint exercises could be significantly expanded. Within the U.S., there are concerns about the reduction of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, and voices are rising that joint exercises should be resumed if necessary.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, on the 2nd (local time), while stating that a "political agreement" for North Korea's denuclearization is the top priority, hinted at the possibility of reviewing the resumption of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. Appearing on MSNBC that day, Secretary Esper said, "We will watch what happens over the next few months," indicating that the resumption of joint exercises would be considered depending on North Korea's actions. He evaluated that "it was true and the right path to reduce joint exercises to keep the door open for diplomacy," but also said, "The reduction of exercises did not affect in any way the fundamental capability to fight and win against North Korea." Although Secretary Esper did not specify under what circumstances the joint exercises would be resumed, it appears he was assuming North Korea's missile launches.

Secretary Esper's remarks came during a question about a tweet by former White House National Security Council (NSC) advisor John Bolton, who advocated for the resumption of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises the previous day.

John Bolton, a hardliner on North Korea, tweeted on the 1st (local time), "The U.S. must fully resume all military exercises canceled or scaled down in South Korea," and called for a congressional hearing to determine whether U.S. forces are truly "ready to fight tonight."

U.S. Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat, also responded in an interview with CNN on the same day to the question, "What advice would you give to President Donald Trump if North Korea conducts nuclear tests?" by saying, "We need to restart the sanctions regime." He also criticized, "The cancellation of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises was a huge gift to North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un without any benefit," adding, "President Trump took him out of international isolation and made him accepted by the international community."