"Trump Faces Unexpected Challenges from North Korea and Iran Ahead of Presidential Election"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the presidential election at the end of this year approaching, U.S. diplomacy has faced a new test. This is because the situations with both North Korea and Iran have rapidly deteriorated. There are concerns about whether the pressure-centered diplomatic strategy, such as economic sanctions that have been employed so far, can yield results.

On the 1st (local time), The New York Times (NYT) diagnosed that U.S. President Donald Trump faced crisis situations from both North Korea and Iran at the start of the new year. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, was attacked by pro-Iranian protesters, and North Korea declared it would unveil new strategic weapons.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Experts pointed out that the Trump administration misjudged both Iran and North Korea in this regard. The Trump administration believed that both Iran and North Korea could be influenced solely through economic sanctions, but this is a miscalculation. It was a misconception to think that allowing crude oil exports or building luxury hotels on the coast could appease Iran and North Korea.

It is well understood that Iran dreams of becoming the dominant power in the Middle East, and that North Korea knows nuclear weapons are the only insurance to protect its regime.

Moreover, there were criticisms that there was a lack of diplomatic strategy toward both Iran and North Korea. There was no effort to concentrate U.S. diplomatic power. While trying to prevent Iran’s nuclear development, the U.S. failed to persuade allies such as those in Europe. Furthermore, as confirmed in the recent attack on the Baghdad embassy, Iran also knows well what the U.S.’s weaknesses are. Just as Iran is obsessed with crude oil exports, the U.S. considers attacks on its military forces or diplomatic missions in the Middle East as its Achilles’ heel.

In the case of North Korea, the problem was seen as even greater. The Trump administration believed that the North Korean nuclear issue could be resolved through a personal bond with Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, but this was a misjudgment. Moreover, during the North Korea-U.S. negotiation period, North Korea also failed to freeze its weapons of mass destruction, and there is analysis that North Korea has already developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) based on solid fuel. The U.S. failed to suppress North Korea’s military strengthening.

Furthermore, the NYT also analyzed that North Korea is likely to seek arms reduction talks rather than denuclearization. It is expected that North Korea will not pursue complete denuclearization.