[The Turbulent General Election] The Test of the Semi-Linked Proportional Representation System... Will 'Coalition Politics' Be Achieved?

'Constituency=Majority Party, Party=Minority Party' Voting Coalition Formula Broken
Third Zone Opportunity... Interest in Small Party Integration

One Party Struggles to Secure Majority Seats
Expecting Coalition Politics, Not Confrontation
Majority Party's Satellite Party Creation for Proportional Representation a Variable

On the last day of 2019, December 31, when a year-end cold wave with temperatures around minus 10 degrees Celsius hit, icicles formed along the Han River near the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul. The frozen icicles seem to reflect the cooled atmosphere in the National Assembly amid clashes between the ruling and opposition parties over the passage of the Corruption Investigation Office Act. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporters Kim Hyemin and Kang Nahum] What changes will the newly introduced 'semi-proportional representation system' bring to next year's general election, a first in Korean political history? Neither political parties nor experts can easily predict the outcomes under this unprecedented new 'game rule.' Opinions are divided. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong expects "the most dynamic election since democratization," while Park Sang-chul, vice president of Kyonggi University, predicts "no significant change."

The biggest change with the introduction of the semi-proportional representation system is that the total number of seats will be determined by party support rates. Until the last general election, voters' party votes were only used to allocate 47 proportional representation seats. Although the semi-proportional representation system is also a rule on how to distribute proportional seats and a cap was imposed during negotiations between ruling and opposition parties, it clearly differs from the previous seat allocation method.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Advantageous for small parties with weak regional bases... reduces incentives for conservative unification = The semi-proportional representation system gives parties with high party support rates but few constituency seats more opportunities to gain proportional representation seats. Although the method of seat allocation has limitations and public opinion is not fully reflected in the number of seats, the system is clearly advantageous for small parties with high party support but weak regional bases.

Due to this characteristic, the future electoral landscape is expected to unfold differently from the past. First, the previous electoral alliance method, which concentrated constituency seats on the majority party, the Democratic Party of Korea, and party votes on the minority Justice Party, is expected to disappear. As party support rates become more important than before, the Democratic Party will also have to appeal for 'party votes.'

The incentive effect for conservative unification between the majority Liberty Korea Party and the minority New Conservative Party is also assessed to have diminished. Since the system allows small parties to secure more proportional seats, the urgency for unification may differ from before. In fact, active unification discussions have cooled down after the election law was passed. However, situations such as a sharp decline in support rates for both parties may force them to join forces. Even without unification, electoral alliances such as single candidate nominations in constituencies to prevent vote splitting remain possible.

Attention should also be paid to unification among minor parties aiming to secure the so-called 'third zone' status. In particular, the possibility of unification among the Honam-based Party for Democracy and Peace, the Alternative New Party (tentative name), and the pro-party leadership faction of the Bareunmirae Party is being discussed. Since the minimum party vote threshold for proportional seat allocation is 3%, unification is considered essential to surpass this and maximize party support rates. However, the perception of being a 'recycled Honam party' remains an obstacle.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Will the two-party system break? The creation of satellite parties by the majority party is a variable = How will the political landscape change after the general election? Experts agree that it will be difficult for any single party to secure a majority of seats. The semi-proportional representation system is thus seen as laying the foundation for Korea's political landscape to shift from a two-party system to a multi-party system. Difficulty in securing a majority means that laws cannot be passed without cooperation. Therefore, supporters of the semi-proportional representation system expect the 21st National Assembly to be a politics of coalition rather than confrontation. There is also hope that administrative power can be decentralized without constitutional amendments, such as through the emergence of a semi-coalition government.

On the other hand, some point out that the 'minority ruling party, majority opposition' (Yeo-so-ya-dae) structure may solidify, intensifying confrontations where the opposition repeatedly obstructs government administration. Unless the presidential-centered power structure is changed to a dual executive or parliamentary system, inter-party checks and balances for power will only deepen. There are also criticisms that the current form of the semi-proportional representation system passed by the National Assembly cannot break the two-party system. Vice president Park Sang-chul said, "At this level, it will not break the two-party system but only provide a political foothold for a third force."

The biggest variable that could overshadow all these possibilities is the creation of satellite parties by the majority party for proportional representation purposes. If the Liberty Korea Party creates a 'Proportional Korea Party' for party votes as announced, and the Democratic Party responds by creating its own satellite party, the semi-proportional representation system will be effectively nullified. Kim Man-heum, director of the Korea Political Academy, said, "If the first and second parties create proportional parties, the two-party confrontation will be reproduced as is," adding, "If satellite parties are created, the results could be worse than before the election law reform."