Likelihood of Strike on Iran Rising
"Focus on Limited Military Strikes"
On the 19th of last month (local time), the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) was conducting joint exercises with fighter jets. U.S. Navy website
U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that Iran quickly reach a nuclear agreement and explicitly set a negotiation deadline of “ten days.” He issued a strong warning that if Iran fails to reach a nuclear deal within ten days, the United States could immediately carry out military retaliation. At the same time, President Trump urged countries to join and donate to the self-created “Board of Peace,” established under the banner of stabilizing the Middle East. As the Trump administration is expected to continue pushing its “Peace through strength” strategy in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged to their highest level in six months.
Trump: "Negotiation deadline is 10 days, 15 days at most"
Donald Trump, President of the United States (center), is taking a commemorative photo on the 19th (local time) at the first Peace Committee meeting held at the Donald Trump Peace Institute in Washington D.C., United States. At the event, President Trump pressured Iran over nuclear negotiations and urged countries to join the Peace Committee and make donations. Washington D.C. (U.S.) = Reuters
On the 19th (local time), presiding over the first meeting of the Board of Peace at the “Donald Trump Peace Research Institute” in Washington D.C., President Trump put strong pressure on Iran. He said, “We will probably reach an agreement. You will probably know the result within the next ten days,” adding, “We must reach a meaningful agreement with Iran. Otherwise, bad things will happen.”
Later, in a press conference aboard Air Force One while traveling from Washington D.C. to Georgia, President Trump again raised the issue of nuclear negotiations with Iran. He said, “We will make the negotiations happen one way or another,” and stated that 10 to 15 days would be sufficient time. In doing so, he effectively presented a concrete timetable while demanding that Iran return to nuclear talks. When reporters asked about his remark that “bad things could happen to Iran,” he replied, “I will not say,” but added, “Ten days would be enough (for the negotiation deadline). Fifteen days is almost the maximum.”
As President Trump has specifically fixed the negotiation deadline at ten days, concerns are growing that the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran has risen sharply. In June last year, just before he abruptly ordered airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, President Trump also mentioned a “two-week” deadline.
◆ International oil prices jump to six?month highs
As the possibility of a U.S. airstrike on Iran has increased, international oil prices have risen again, reaching their highest levels in six months. On the ICE Futures Exchange, North Sea Brent crude rose 1.9% from the previous session to 71.66 dollars per barrel. This was the highest level in about six months since July 31 last year. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed 1.9% from the previous day to 66.43 dollars per barrel, its highest price since August 1 last year.
Andrew Lipow, head of the oil market analysis firm Lipow Oil Associates, told Reuters, “Geopolitical tensions and concerns that the United States may soon attack Iran have pushed up oil prices,” adding, “The market will continue to show strength as it anticipates that something will happen.”
◆ Will the U.S. attempt a Venezuela?style 'surgical strike'?
With the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Iran growing, some analysts say Washington may attempt the same “surgical strike” approach it used in its airstrikes on Venezuela. They argue that, because a prolonged war in Iran could risk escalating into a wider conflict across the entire Middle East, the United States is highly likely to focus on limited military strikes.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that “the initial strikes on Iran will focus on limited attacks targeting a small number of military and government facilities,” and that “such limited strikes will not simply serve as a punitive measure for the breakdown of negotiations, but will be used as a springboard to draw out negotiations favorable to the United States.” The paper went on to say, “President Trump may start on a small scale and then gradually ratchet up the level of attacks until the Iranian regime halts its nuclear activities or collapses.”
The British broadcaster BBC also presented a Venezuela?style surgical?strike approach as a leading scenario for a possible U.S. attack on Iran. The BBC said, “The United States may choose a course of military intervention under which the Iranian regime remains intact, but its policies are moderated,” and predicted that “while allowing the regime to stay in place, the United States would push it to reduce support for armed groups across the Middle East, to halt or scale back its nuclear and ballistic?missile programs, and to ease its crackdown on protests.” The report added that, given the high risk of escalation and Iran’s substantial influence in the Middle East, it is difficult to predict how the situation will unfold.
However, it remains uncertain whether this Venezuela?style scenario would work. The BBC pointed out that the United States could face difficulties because the Iranian regime has resisted the United States for the past 47 years, and because, in both military and geographical terms, Iran is a more difficult target to attack than Venezuela.
◆ Trump pushes countries to join and donate to the Board of Peace... 9 countries donate over 10 trillion won
While effectively issuing a final ultimatum to Iran, President Trump at the same time pressed the international community to join and donate to the Board of Peace he created. At the Board of Peace meeting, he said, “I believe this is the most consequential board in terms of power and stature. There has never been a board of this stature. That is because the greatest world leaders have gathered here,” adding, “Almost everyone has accepted, and those who have not yet accepted will join.” He then sent a warning to several countries that were skeptical about participating in the Board of Peace, saying, “You can't play cute with me,” meaning they should not try to dodge participation in a clever way.
President Trump also called on each country to make voluntary donations along with joining the Board of Peace. He said, “For humanitarian aid and reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, nine participating countries of the Board of Peace - Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kuwait - have donated more than 7 billion dollars (about 10 trillion won),” adding, “I am pleased to announce that the F?d?ration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) will help raise a total of 75 billion dollars for the Gaza Strip project,” and noted that the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is also raising 2 billion dollars. He further stated, “Japan has just agreed to host a fundraising event for aid funds, and it will be a very large event,” and added, “Other countries in the region, such as South Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, will participate. I believe China and Russia will also take part.”
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