"KOSPI 7,900 Is Possible": Forecasts Surge on the Rally of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

Samsung Electronics shares briefly top 190,000 won
Semiconductor boom drives successive KOSPI target upgrades
Hana Securities projects the highest KOSPI target of 7,900
KOSPI 5,000 likely to become the 'new normal' floor

On the 19th, as the KOSPI intraday for the first time ever surpassed the 5,600 level, an employee in the dealing room at Hana Bank's Seoul head office was monitoring the stock market and exchange rates. As of 9:02 a.m., the KOSPI was up 150.70 points (2.74%) from the previous session, continuing its strong advance. Reporter Cho Yongjun

There is now a forecast that the KOSPI could rise to 7,900, driven by the two semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. As semiconductor earnings improve and valuations are being reassessed (valuation re-rating), securities firms are successively raising their KOSPI targets. Even as the U.S. stock market has been sluggish this year, the Korean stock market has surged more than 3%, and there is a growing view that 5,000 on the KOSPI will now become a new support level.

Semiconductor boom led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix pushes KOSPI targets higher

On the 19th, the KOSPI opened at 5,642.09, up 2.45% from the previous trading day, and extended its gains to trade at 5,666.54 as of 9:46 a.m., up 2.90%. This is the first time the KOSPI has broken through the 5,600-point level.

On this day as well, the leading semiconductor stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the KOSPI’s rise. Samsung Electronics jumped about 5% intraday, hitting an all-time high of 190,900 won. This is the first time Samsung Electronics has broken through 190,000 won. SK Hynix also climbed 3.05%, reclaiming the 900,000 won level.

The rise was influenced by gains in U.S. technology stocks overnight. On the 18th (Eastern Time), the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 22,753.63, up 0.78%. Nvidia, the leading U.S. semiconductor stock, gained more than 1% on news that it would sell several million units of its latest graphics processing units (GPUs) to Meta. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose 0.96%.

As the KOSPI’s upward trend continues, centered on semiconductors, domestic and foreign securities firms are racing to raise their KOSPI targets. Hana Securities on this day raised the upper end of its 1-year KOSPI forecast to the 7,900 level. At the end of last year, Hana Securities projected the KOSPI’s 2026 net profit at 330 trillion won, but this month sharply revised it up to 457 trillion won. Over the same period, the semiconductor sector’s net profit forecast increased from 137 trillion won to 259 trillion won, accounting for 96% of the upward revision in the KOSPI’s net profit estimate.

Lee Jaeman, a researcher at Hana Securities, said, “The current price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of the semiconductor sector is 6.7 times, whereas the average peak PER in years when semiconductor net profit increases for more than two consecutive years is 12.1 times,” adding, “If we apply that PER to the sector’s 12?month forward net profit, theoretically there is 74.8% upside potential in share prices from current levels.” He stated, “Under this scenario, the KOSPI’s long-term expected return is 43.1%, and the KOSPI peak rises to 7,870 points.”

He added, “Global liquidity, measured as the broad money (M2) of 12 countries combined, stands at 118 trillion dollars, hitting an all-time high, and domestic customer deposits are also at a record-high level of 103 trillion won,” emphasizing that “the increase in domestic and overseas liquidity can create a favorable environment for valuation re-rating in the stock market.”

Hana Securities presents the highest KOSPI target of 7,900

Previously, NH Investment & Securities and Yuanta Securities Korea also set the upper end of their KOSPI targets above 7,000 points. Earlier this month, NH Investment & Securities became the first among domestic securities firms to raise the upper end of its KOSPI forecast to 7,300. Kim Byungyeon, Head of Investment Strategy at NH Investment & Securities, said, “Considering the continued upward revisions to corporate earnings and the still not overly burdensome valuation level, the KOSPI is currently far from its peak,” stressing, “The KOSPI is in an expansion phase where both corporate earnings growth and multiple expansion are occurring simultaneously, so further upside is possible.”

Yuanta Securities Korea also raised the upper end of its KOSPI target to 6,300 points and analyzed that if the net profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rise further and their valuations are reassessed, the upper end of the index could move up to 7,100.

Among foreign securities firms, JPMorgan and Citi expressed a positive view that the KOSPI could reach 7,000 points. On the 2nd, JPMorgan released a Korea equity strategy report predicting that, backed by the two semiconductor leaders, the KOSPI could climb as high as 7,500. Citi, citing the semiconductor boom, forecast on the 6th that the Korean economy would grow 2.4% this year, exceeding its potential growth rate of 1.8%, and presented 7,000 as the upper end of the KOSPI.

KOSPI 5,000 now seen as the 'new normal' floor

As the KOSPI continues to rise steadily, there are growing expectations that the “4,000-point era” has ended in just three months and that 5,000 points will now become the new downside support level. The KOSPI first broke through 4,000 points on October 27 last year and then surpassed 5,000 points for the first time about three months later, on January 22 this year. It has continued to climb since then and has now moved above 5,600 points.

With the KOSPI index rising steadily without a major correction, securities firms are setting 5,000 points as the lower end of their KOSPI forecasts. Even as the U.S. stock market undergoes a correction this year, the KOSPI has surged by about 34%, posting the highest gain among major countries worldwide. On the 13th, Yuanta Securities Korea set the lower end of its KOSPI forecast at 5,000 points, and Daishin Securities also projected that 5,000 would serve as a support level in the first half of this year.

Kim Yonggu, a researcher at Yuanta Securities Korea, said, “Unless there is a disruptive change in the global macroeconomy and the semiconductor industry cycle, it is fair to say that the 4,000-point KOSPI era has now receded into history,” emphasizing, “Accordingly, we have raised the lower end of this year’s KOSPI forecast to 5,000.”

Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “The current KOSPI is a typical earnings- and policy-driven market led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix,” and forecast, “As long as forward earnings per share (EPS) of major companies are in an uptrend, the KOSPI’s upward trend will also continue.”