Second Round of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Stalls
Trump and Vance Hint at Military Strike Options on Iran
Iran Says It Plans Naval Drills with China and Russia
As fears of a full-scale war between the United States and Iran intensified, international oil prices reversed course and surged in just one day. With nuclear talks between the two countries making little progress, the U.S. government strongly hinted at the possibility of military operations, stoking concerns over crude oil supply and demand. As Iran responded to Washington's hard-line stance by announcing that it would hold joint naval drills with Russia and China, military tensions surrounding Iran and across the broader Middle East have risen sharply.
On the 18th (local time), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped 4.59% from the previous session to close at 65.19 dollars. North Sea Brent crude also finished the day at 70.35 dollars, up 4.35% from the previous day. Although the United States and Iran held a second round of nuclear negotiations on the 6th, following talks earlier this month, they failed to narrow their differences over key issues, and mounting fears of a potential U.S. strike on Iran fueled the rally in oil prices.
Military tensions were further heightened by hard-line remarks from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance immediately after the nuclear talks. In an interview with Fox News following the second round of negotiations with Iran, Vice President Vance said, "President Donald Trump has set several red lines, and it became very clear that Iran has no willingness to acknowledge or address them," adding, "President Trump is working to find a solution, whether through diplomatic options or other options, to ensure that Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons," thereby suggesting the possibility of U.S. military action.
The White House also issued a strong warning to Iran that it could resort to military options. At a briefing on the 18th, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, "It would be a very wise choice for Iran to reach an agreement with President Trump and the current administration," adding, "There are many reasons and arguments for considering an attack on Iran. President Trump makes every military decision based on what is in the best interests of the United States, the U.S. military, and the American people," she emphasized.
President Trump himself hinted at the possibility of military action if talks with Iran fail. On the same day, he posted on his social media platform Truth Social that the United Kingdom should continue to maintain its military base in the Indian Ocean in preparation for a potential strike on Iran. "If Iran decides not to make a deal, the United States may need to use the Diego Garcia and Fairford air bases to eliminate a potential attack by a very unstable and dangerous regime," Trump wrote, stressing that "(the U.K.) must not lose control over Diego Garcia by entering into a 100-year lease agreement that is, for any reason, at best unstable."
Diego Garcia, which President Trump mentioned, refers to an island in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean. In 1965, the United Kingdom separated the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius, then a British colony, and even after Mauritius gained independence in 1968, the islands remained under British control. Last May, the British government signed an agreement to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius while retaining control over the military base on Diego Garcia within the archipelago for at least 99 years.
As key U.S. officials repeatedly raised the prospect of military options, Iran moved to respond by announcing plans for joint naval exercises with Russia and China. Iran's state-run Mehr News Agency (MNA) quoted Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev as saying, "Russia has dispatched warships to participate in the 'Maritime Security Belt 2026' drills together with China and Iran."
MNA reported that the joint drills, initiated under the leadership of the Iranian Navy, aim to strengthen maritime security, enhance cooperation in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, and conduct coordinated search-and-rescue operations. First held in 2019, the latest exercises are scheduled to take place in Bandar Abbas, a key military port city in southern Iran located near the Strait of Hormuz. Through these drills, Tehran seeks to showcase its military solidarity with China and Russia and to prepare for a potential U.S. military strike.
Farzan Sabet, an Iran and Middle East security analyst at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) in Geneva, Switzerland, told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "Iran is facing its worst military threat since the end of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War in 1988," adding, "Iran is preparing for an attack by shifting its security and political leadership to the highest state of alert in order to prevent a change of leadership and to protect its nuclear facilities."
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