Kim Jong Un's Public Appearances with Kim Juae... Is the Cherished Daughter the Successor, and What About His Son? [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Despite NIS Emphasis on Kim Juae as Successor
Attention Focused on Whether Kim Jongun Has an Eldest Son

At the main ceremony of the military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army (Armed Forces Day), Kim Juae was seen touching the face of her father, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un. Yonhap News

Since the beginning of the new year, interest in the successor to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, has been growing. The National Intelligence Service (hereinafter NIS) has been lending further weight to the theory that Kim Juae is the designated successor, but some observers, focusing on the possible existence of Kim Jong Un's son, predict that the succession structure could change.

At a recent closed-door plenary session of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, the NIS assessed that the role of Kim Juae, known as the daughter of Chairman Kim Jong Un, has been strengthened and that North Korea is entering the stage of de facto succession designation. Park Sunwon, a lawmaker of the Democratic Party of Korea and a secretary of the Intelligence Committee, and Lee Seongkwon, a lawmaker of the People Power Party and also a secretary of the committee, stressed in a briefing that, regarding Kim Juae, they used the expression "stage of succession designation" instead of "successor training." In other words, Kim Jong Un's successor is Kim Juae.

Kim Juae as the official successor at home and abroad

Chairman Kim is assessed to have three children. In 2017, the NIS estimated that Kim Jong Un's children consist of an eldest son (born in 2010), a second child who is a daughter (Kim Juae, presumed to have been born in 2013), and a third child born in 2017 whose gender is unknown. As an example, the NIS cited signs such as the emergency import of luxury boys' toys in 2010 under orders from the upper echelons.

A photograph showing Kim Juae, the daughter of Kim Jong Un, together with him, has been posted on a bulletin board next to the main gate of the North Korean Embassy in Beijing's Chaoyang District. Yonhap News

However, since most information about Kim Jong Un's family, including Kim Juae, remains unknown, the succession structure cannot be definitively determined. There is still much disagreement even over the composition of Kim Jong Un's children. According to the NIS, Kim Juae has one older brother and one younger sibling whose gender has not been confirmed. Yet, apart from Kim Juae, none of them has ever appeared in public.

The only child whom Chairman Kim has brought along on official schedules is his daughter, Kim Juae. She was first revealed to the public in November 2022 when she accompanied Kim Jong Un to an on-site guidance event for a missile test launch. Since then, she has stood by Kim Jong Un's side at key military and non-military events, such as observing the launch of the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18 with him in December 2023 and accompanying him to the launch site of the reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 in November of the same year. For this reason, most North Korea experts view the likelihood that Kim Juae will become the successor as high.

The question of whether Kim Jong Un has a son as a variable

Some observers focus more on the son than on Kim Juae. Park Jie-won, a Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker and former Director of the National Intelligence Service, flatly stated that Chairman Kim's daughter Kim Juae is not the successor, asserting that "there is a high possibility that Kim Jong Un's son is studying abroad in the Western world." Park argued that Kim Juae's recent frequent public appearances are a strategy to conceal the existence of the son, sparking controversy. This is a strong rebuttal to the "fourth-generation hereditary succession" theory that was triggered by Kim Juae accompanying Kim Jong Un on his visit to China, and it has elicited mixed reactions among inter-Korean affairs experts.

Appearing on a radio program, Park said, "In a socialist and feudal society like North Korea, there is no precedent for a female successor," and claimed that "Kim Jong Un simply dotes on his daughter and brings her along." He went on to say, "Just as Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong were studying in Switzerland at the age of 12, there is a high possibility that Kim Jong Un's son is currently studying somewhere in the Western world. To conceal this, they have put Kim Juae at the forefront."

Is a female successor possible in North Korea?

North Korea has traditionally reflected a Confucian practice of passing leadership to the eldest son. This was broken when Kim Jong Un was chosen as successor over his older brothers Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Chol. Experts assess that, when it comes to leadership succession in North Korea, gender does not pose a problem. Neither the Constitution of North Korea nor the "Ten Principles for the Establishment of the Party's Monolithic Leadership System," which emphasize the Paektu bloodline to justify succession within the three-generation Kim family, explicitly prohibit a female leader. This means it all depends on the decision of the supreme leader, Kim Jong Un.

Although Kim Juae may face limitations in taking Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, the former leaders, as her models, if she becomes the leader she is expected to rule as a dictator modeled after Kim Jong Un. Analysts suggest that Chairman Kim may be considering the "first female leader" card, and that if Kim Juae rises as the successor, this could be seen as an attempt to modernize and soften the traditional image of a communist leader.

A North Korea expert said, "It is unclear how effective a female leader in North Korea would be among the country's young people, the so-called 'jangmadang generation'," adding, "Even if they put forward Kim Juae and promote a 'sophisticated image strategy,' distrust in the state and desire for the outside world could grow stronger."