Import prices rise for 7 straight months... "Longest uptrend in seven and a half years"

Import prices up 0.4% month-on-month, rising for 7 straight months
Longest upward streak since January to July 2018
Caution over impact on consumer prices with 1-3 month time lag

Import prices continued their upward march for the seventh consecutive month. This is the longest stretch of increases in about seven years and six months, since January to July 2018. Although international oil prices and the won-dollar exchange rate both declined, higher prices for primary metal products and mineral products drove the rise in import prices. A sustained uptrend in import prices can put upward pressure on consumer prices with a time lag of one to three months. While developments this month still need to be monitored, there is heightened caution as international oil prices (Dubai crude) have recently risen about 8% compared with the previous month's average.

Import prices rise for 7 straight months... Longest uptrend in about 7 years and 6 months

According to the Bank of Korea's preliminary report titled "Export and Import Price Index and Terms of Trade Index for January 2026," released on the 13th, last month's import price index in won terms stood at 143.29 (2020=100), up 0.4% from the previous month. This was due to increases in primary metal products and mineral products, despite declines in international oil prices and the won-dollar exchange rate. The average price of Dubai crude last month was 61.97 dollars per barrel, down 0.1% from 62.05 dollars in December 2025. The average won-dollar exchange rate fell 0.7%, from 1,467.40 won in December 2025 to 1,456.51 won last month. On a year-on-year basis, it declined 1.2%.

By use, prices of raw materials rose 0.9% from the previous month, led by mineral products such as copper ore and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Intermediate goods also climbed 0.8% as primary metal products and other items became more expensive. In contrast, capital goods and consumer goods fell 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively, from the previous month. Excluding exchange rate effects, import prices in contract currency terms rose 1.1% from the previous month, but were down 2.0% from a year earlier.

So far this month (from the 1st to the 11th), the average won-dollar exchange rate has remained at a similar level to the previous month, while international oil prices have risen, with Dubai crude trading about 8% above the previous month's average. Lee Moonhee, head of the Price Statistics Team at the Economic Statistics Department 1 of the Bank of Korea, noted, "This pattern in exchange rates and raw material prices could affect export and import prices, but given that these prices tend to be highly volatile, we need to continue monitoring conditions through the end of the month in light of the uncertainty in the environment." A continued rise in import prices is one of the factors pushing consumer prices higher. Import prices are typically reflected in consumer prices with a lag of one to three months.

Export prices up 4.0%... Computers, electronic and optical equipment rise

Last month's export prices rose 4.0% from the previous month and were up 7.8% from a year earlier. Although the won-dollar exchange rate declined, prices of computers, electronic and optical equipment and other items increased. By item, prices of manufactured goods climbed 4.0% from the previous month, led by computers, electronic and optical equipment, and primary metal products. Prices of agricultural, forestry, and marine products fell 1.6% from the previous month. In contract currency terms, export prices rose 4.7% from the previous month and 7.0% from a year earlier.

The export volume index, which shows changes in export and import activity, jumped 28.3% year-on-year, driven by increases in computers, electronic and optical equipment, and transport equipment. The export value index rose 37.3%, marking the highest growth rate in four years and seven months since June 2021 (40.5%). Last month's import volume index climbed 14.5% as imports of primary metal products and computers, electronic and optical equipment increased, the highest rise in three years and five months since August 2022 (15.7%). The import value index rose 12.5%. Lee explained, "As investment in artificial intelligence (AI) servers and data centers has expanded, demand for semiconductors and computer memory devices has increased, leading to a sharp rise in computers, electronic and optical equipment in both the export volume index and the import volume index."

Last month's net barter terms of trade index rose 8.9% year-on-year, as export prices increased 7.0% while import prices fell 1.8%. The income terms of trade index surged 39.7%, with both the net barter terms of trade index (8.9%) and the export volume index (28.3%) rising.