Smartphone Camera Makers Set for a Windfall from Humanoids?... "Still Premature" [Weekend Money]

Even With Humanoid Adoption, Share Remains Small Compared With Smartphones
Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek Share Prices Will Diverge on Non-Camera Businesses

The camera module industry, which has entered a stagnation phase due to lengthening smartphone replacement cycles and a plateau in the number of cameras installed per device, is now encountering a new application in the form of humanoid robots. However, analysts note that the market needs to clearly distinguish between expectations and reality.

According to analysis by Korea Investment & Securities, the camera module industry has already entered a structurally low-growth phase. Last year, the optical-related sales of Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek were flat and up 2.9% year-on-year, respectively. This indicates that, as the smartphone market matures, it has become difficult to expect explosive demand growth.

In this environment, news of collaboration between camera module suppliers and humanoid robot manufacturers is being viewed positively in terms of diversifying applications. Humanoid robots use camera modules with specifications similar to existing automotive-use (5MP) units, and it is estimated that 5 to 6 modules are installed per robot. The fact that the number of modules per single device is not small suggests that humanoids could become a new source of demand over the mid to long term.

In fact, Tesla recently made it official that it will convert part of its existing electric vehicle production plants into humanoid lines this year, and also shared a long-term goal of securing annual production capacity of up to 4 million units by 2027. In the market, conservative estimates are 10,000 to 30,000 units in 2026, 100,000 to 500,000 units in 2027, and 1 million to 2 million units in 2028.

Based on these estimates, the size of the camera module market for humanoids is projected at 2.8 billion won in 2026, 27.8 billion won in 2027, and 278.1 billion won in 2028. Even under an optimistic scenario, it is analyzed to be around 8.3 billion won in 2026, 139.1 billion won in 2027, and 556.2 billion won in 2028.

Park Sanghyun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "Given that the combined optical-related sales of Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek exceeded 22 trillion won last year, even under optimistic assumptions, humanoids are highly likely to remain in the low-single-digit percentage range of the overall camera module market through 2028," adding, "It is still too early to view humanoids as a 'game changer' that will transform the industry landscape in a short period of time."

Accordingly, researcher Park analyzed that the share price trajectories of Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek are more likely to be determined by their other business segments, rather than by the camera module divisions that are influenced by humanoids and smartphones.

Among large-cap component stocks, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is drawing relatively more attention. By actively responding to the AI infrastructure industry cycle through multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) and package substrates, its earnings per share (EPS) growth rate is expected to surge from 3.2% last year to 47.0% this year.

LG Innotek, on the other hand, is analyzed to have limited exposure to the current AI cycle due to its near-90% dependence on smartphones for revenue. However, it is positive that a turnaround to earnings growth this year is coming into view, driven by follow-up demand for the iPhone 17 and the effect of variable apertures to be introduced starting with the iPhone 18.

Researcher Park stated, "The camera module industry has limited room for generating explosive new demand, but it can still play the role of a cash cow that produces stable revenue based on solid replacement demand," and added, "Any meaningful earnings momentum that can accompany share price appreciation will ultimately have to be found in business areas other than camera modules."