"Semiconductors Pull, Value-Up Pushes"...Why Korean and Global Brokers See KOSPI Hitting 7,000

'Samjeonnix' Earnings Expected to Increase Further
'Semiconductor Warmth' Spreading to Domestic Demand and Other Industries
Government Value-Up Policy Also Positive for Market Rally

An employee in the dealing room at Hana Bank's Seoul headquarters is monitoring the stock market and exchange rates on the 9th, when the KOSPI opened more than 4% higher. On that day, the KOSPI opened at 5,299.10, up 4.13% from the previous trading day, marking the highest opening price on record, and the KOSDAQ opened at 1,109.91, up 2.7%. 2026.2.9 Photo by Jo Yongjun

Major domestic and global securities firms analyze that, as earnings forecasts for semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continue to be revised upward, their share prices will rise and the upper band of the KOSPI will also move higher. The warmth that began in semiconductors is expected to spread to defense, power equipment, automobiles, shipbuilding, and even domestic-demand industries such as department stores, providing a positive backdrop for the Korean stock market. The government's ongoing corporate value enhancement (value-up) policy is also positive for equities.

Further upward revisions expected for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix earnings estimates

Global investment bank JP Morgan on the 2nd set the upper end of its KOSPI target at 7,500 and projected that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would lead the market rally. JP Morgan forecast that this year’s earnings per share (EPS) for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be about 40% higher than the current consensus. It estimated that the share prices of the two stocks have an additional upside potential of 45-50% from current levels. While acknowledging the possibility of short-term share price corrections due to technical pressures, it analyzed that the pace of corporate earnings improvement is outpacing index returns, thereby limiting valuation burdens.

Long-term growth industries such as defense, shipbuilding, and power equipment are also maintaining their growth trajectory and supporting the stock market’s rise. According to JP Morgan, over the past six months the earnings per share (EPS) consensus for this year for MSCI Korea has been raised by 60%. By sector, technology was revised up by 130% and industrials by 25%, driving earnings momentum.

The continuation of the government-led value-up program is another driver of the market’s advance. Citi expects the Korean government to bolster the stock market through measures such as systematizing share cancellations via the third amendment to the Commercial Act, introducing legislation to prevent share-price suppression, and implementing a policy to ban duplicate listings. It also assessed that the 150 trillion won National Growth Fund could serve as an additional engine for the market’s rise.

Citi cited semiconductors centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, automobiles represented by Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Mobis, department stores that are expected to benefit from wealth effects stemming from rising asset prices and a recovery in domestic demand, and power equipment enjoying robust exports to the United States as the industries that will lead the stock market’s advance.

Among domestic brokerages, NH raises KOSPI target to 7,300 points

Domestic securities firms are also steadily revising their KOSPI forecasts upward. NH Investment & Securities on the 5th set its 12?month KOSPI target at 7,300 points. Kim Byungyeon, Head of Investment Strategy at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "The reason we are raising our KOSPI target despite the current phase of high index volatility is that the current stock market is in an expansion phase, with corporate earnings growth and multiple expansion occurring simultaneously."

Kim said, "At the end of last month, the KOSPI’s market capitalization exceeded 4,100 trillion won, and the pace of increase is also very rapid," and emphasized, "What deserves more attention is that the growth rate of KOSPI corporate earnings is outpacing the growth rate of market capitalization."

He explained, "Strong conviction in hardware demand related to artificial intelligence (AI) is underpinning expectations for earnings improvement, while qualitative improvements in corporate governance are prompting a re-rating of valuation multiples. In addition, continued confidence in the U.S. asset markets and the stable trend in the bond market are factors supporting the rise of the KOSPI."

Daishin Securities also raised its KOSPI target on the 2nd, from 5,300 to 5,800 points. Lee Kyoungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "For both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, net profit consensus has nearly doubled recently," and explained, "We reflected upward revisions to earnings forecasts led by semiconductors."

Lee added, "With the passage of the third amendment to the Commercial Act and the general meetings of shareholders at major companies, there is potential for an additional step-up in earnings levels and an acceleration in valuation improvement. While February may see overheating ease and a phase of digesting supply, we expect the stock market’s upward trend to resume in March."