"Terrible Scenario Unfolds," Experts Warn..."Bitcoin Could Fall Below 65,000 Dollars"

72% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below 70,000 Dollars Next Month

Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Experts say Bitcoin has lost its appeal as a risk-hedging vehicle and predict that further declines will be inevitable for the time being.

According to U.S. prediction market platform Polymarket on February 5, the probability that Bitcoin will fall to 65,000 dollars (about 9,498,450,000 won) this year has reached 82%. Global virtual asset data site CoinMarketCap showed that as of 9:45 a.m. on the same day, Bitcoin was trading at 72,942 dollars, down 3.99% from 24 hours earlier, which is about 10% higher than the 65,000-dollar level.

Polymarket also sees a high likelihood that it will fall below 65,000 dollars. The probability that Bitcoin will end below 55,000 dollars has surged to 60%, while the probability of it recovering to 100,000 dollars has dropped to 54%, down from 80% at the beginning of the year. Polymarket is a platform that shows the market-implied probability of specific events occurring, based on the results of bets placed on whether those events will happen.

The current price of Bitcoin has plunged more than 42% from its all-time high of over 126,000 dollars recorded in October last year. It is now at its lowest level since November 6, 2024, the day after President Trump was re-elected. Bloomberg evaluated that in the course of this decline, Bitcoin has lost both its upward momentum and its status as a hedging instrument.

The bearish outlook for Bitcoin is even more pronounced in short-dated contracts. In Polymarket’s February contract, the probability that Bitcoin will trade below 70,000 dollars through March 1 is estimated at 72%, more than 35 percentage points higher than at the beginning of this month. This reflects traders’ real-time pessimism at a time when doubts are deepening across the market due to exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and the breakdown of macroeconomic correlations.

Ilian Solot, senior analyst at Marex Solutions, said, "Bitcoin has recently failed to play the role of a safe asset," adding, "It basically reflects the current pessimistic sentiment in the market."

Andrew Tu, head of business development at Efficient Frontier, said, "With the market having been shaken significantly over the past week, investor sentiment in the virtual asset market is currently in a state of 'extreme fear'," and added, "If Bitcoin fails to hold the 72,000-dollar level, there is a very high possibility that it will fall to around 68,000 dollars." He went on to say, "It could even be pushed down to the low levels seen in 2024."