A reckless overreach or a winning gamble?... Takaichi's decision on the 'shortest-ever election' [Around The Japanese General Election]

1. Why is Japan holding such an unusual snap election?
Laying the groundwork for long-term rule on the back of high approval ratings
Polls flashing green despite criticism of a "midwinter election"

Editor's NoteJapanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has played the early general election card just three months after taking office. While Japanese media are calling this an exceptional move, attention is focused on how closely Prime Minister Takaichi's calculations to overturn the current situation of the ruling party being outnumbered by the opposition will align with voters' decisions. From party-by-party campaign pledges to unconventional candidates, this series looks at the upcoming Japanese general election from multiple angles.

Japan will hold an early election for the House of Representatives (the lower house) on the 8th. On January 23, the opening day of the regular Diet session, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae abruptly dissolved the House of Representatives and announced that a general election would be held. The 16 days from the dissolution of the House of Representatives to voting and ballot counting on the 8th make this an "ultra-short" general election by post-World War II standards. The prefectural election management commissions completed the candidate registration process on January 27, four days after the dissolution of the House of Representatives, and will conduct early voting through the 7th.

In terms of both the term of the House of Representatives and the timing of its dissolution, this early general election is virtually unprecedented. The House of Representatives formed on October 9, 2024, was dissolved after just one year and three months, without even serving half of its four-year term. It is also unusual to dissolve the lower house on the first day of a regular Diet session. In Japan, dissolving the Diet on the first day of a regular session is the first time in about 60 years since 1996, and holding a general election in February is also the first time in 36 years since 1990.

Takaichi Sanae, Prime Minister of Japan, speaking in Akihabara, Tokyo on the 27th. Liberal Democratic Party.

An early election with the prime ministership on the line... boon or bust

Prime Minister Takaichi undertook this risky move, declaring, "I will put my position as prime minister on the line and ask the people for a vote of confidence." In effect, she has framed this general election as a confidence vote on her administration. In Japan, it is customary for the leader of the ruling party to become prime minister. Given this, Takaichi became prime minister after winning last October's Liberal Democratic Party leadership election through a party member vote, but she has not yet gone through a direct popular mandate. This election is seen as an attempt to reaffirm that mandate.

Such boldness has been made possible by her high approval ratings. Since its launch in October last year, the Takaichi Cabinet has consistently recorded approval ratings in the 70% range. Under such circumstances, it is possible that she could significantly increase her party's number of seats and attempt to reverse the existing situation in which the ruling bloc is outnumbered by the opposition. The strategy is to push ahead with the election, even if it seems forced, backed by strong approval ratings, and thereby lay the groundwork for long-term rule.

Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae (right) visited Sapporo City, Hokkaido, which was hit by heavy snowfall on the 28th of last month, to hold a campaign rally in support of candidate Nakamura Hiroyuki. Liberal Democratic Party.

However, public opinion appears to view this as an overreach. The approval ratings of the Takaichi Cabinet, which had been soaring day after day, plunged as soon as the early general election was announced. In a nationwide poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun on January 24-25, the cabinet's approval rating came in at 57%, down 10 percentage points from the previous survey's 67%. Other major media outlets' polls conducted around the same time likewise showed a simultaneous decline in support.

On top of this, heavy snowfall and severe cold have emerged as new variables affecting campaign activities, drawing further criticism from the opposition. Noda Yoshihiko, co-leader of the Centrist Reform Coalition, criticized, "Are you telling the elderly and people with disabilities to go to polling stations in this snow?" and added, "Prime Minister Takaichi does not understand the spirit of democracy."

Perhaps mindful of such criticism, Prime Minister Takaichi has been prioritizing regions hit by heavy snowfall or severe cold as her primary campaign stops. On January 27, the deadline for candidate registration and the official start of the campaign period, she toured Fukushima and Miyagi Prefectures, which are both areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and suffering from severe cold damage. The following day, she campaigned in Hokkaido, which has seen record-breaking snowfall. Citing a key official at the prime minister's office, the Mainichi Shimbun reported, "In order to avoid criticism of this being an 'election in the snow,' the prime minister needs to go there in person and make her case."

Can she reach her target number of seats? For now, the polls are flashing green

This general election will decide a total of 465 seats (289 single-seat constituencies and 176 proportional representation seats). The threshold for a simple majority is 233 seats. Prime Minister Takaichi has set a goal of securing more than half the seats together with the coalition partner Japan Innovation Party. At a Japan National Press Club debate on January 26, she declared, "If the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party fail to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, I will step down immediately. I will grit my teeth and work hard."

There is intense interest in how much her do-or-die stance will actually stir voter sentiment. In particular, it has been a key question whether she can overcome the large gap between the approval rating of the Takaichi Cabinet and the support rating of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The Liberal Democratic Party's support had been steadily declining due to a slush fund scandal and controversies over its ties to the Unification Church, and it had been unable to reverse that trend. However, recent opinion polls show that the party's support rating has rebounded.

Yonhap News Agency

JNN, the news channel under Japan's TBS, reported on the 2nd that in a poll conducted from January 31 to February 1, the Liberal Democratic Party's support rating rose 5.0 percentage points from the previous survey to 34.7%, the highest among all parties. In a poll conducted by Kyodo News during the same period, the share of respondents who chose the Liberal Democratic Party as their party for the proportional representation ballot was 36.1%, up 6.9 percentage points. The opposition Centrist Reform Coalition rose only 2.0 percentage points to 13.9%.

As a result, the view that Prime Minister Takaichi's high-stakes gamble could become a springboard for a long-term ruling system is gaining traction. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the Liberal Democratic Party, together with its coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, is in a position to aim for what is known as the "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats. If they secure an absolute stable majority, the ruling bloc will monopolize all chairmanships of standing committees in the House of Representatives. In addition, it will hold a majority in every committee, giving it a decisive advantage in passing legislation.

Furthermore, if the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party secure more than two-thirds of all seats, or 310 seats, they will be able to pass bills in the House of Representatives by a second vote even if those bills are voted down in the House of Councillors, where the ruling parties are outnumbered. This would also make it possible to introduce constitutional amendment proposals. Since the days of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the Liberal Democratic Party's far-right supporters have been insisting on the need to amend the Constitution to make Japan a "war-capable state."