[Good Morning Market] KOSPI Expected to Remain Solid Despite Weaker AI Investment Sentiment

Led by Key Sectors Such as Semiconductors

On January 30, the domestic stock market is expected to start with a solid trend, led by key sectors such as semiconductors.

The previous day, on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,071.56, up 55.96 points (0.11%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index fell by 9.02 points (0.13%) to 6,969.01, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 172.33 points (0.727%) to close at 23,685.12.

As the full-fledged earnings season for technology stocks begins, the market's sensitivity to monetization by artificial intelligence (AI) companies is increasing. This explains why there was a clear divergence in stock performance between Microsoft and Meta the previous day. Sensitivity to stock prices is also expected to be high for major companies such as Palantir and Alphabet, which are scheduled to announce their earnings next week. Separately, the AI infrastructure investment cycle remains ongoing, with particular focus now shifting to memory semiconductors. Microsoft announced that two-thirds of its quarterly capital expenditures were allocated to graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs). After the market closed, SanDisk reported an earnings surprise, posting sales of $3.03 billion, far exceeding consensus estimates, and its stock price surged by over 11% in after-hours trading.

The clear outperformance of semiconductors is also evident in the US stock market. Since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq has risen by 2.6%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has jumped by 17.3%. This global trend is expected to support the earnings and share prices of major Korean semiconductor stocks as well.

On the 28th, when the KOSPI index surpassed the 5100 mark intraday for the first time in history, dealers were working in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. On the same day, the KOSDAQ index broke through the 1100 mark intraday, and the won-dollar exchange rate started trading at 1431 won, down 15.2 won from the previous trading day. 2026.1.28 Photo by Kang Jinhyung

The previous day, the domestic stock market turned downward during trading after profit-taking following the earnings announcements of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but rebounded as bargain-hunting funds from individual investors flowed in. The KOSPI rose by 0.98%, and the KOSDAQ climbed by 2.73%.

Today, despite the deterioration in US AI investment sentiment triggered by Microsoft, the domestic stock market is expected to start with a solid trend in leading sectors such as semiconductors, buoyed by SanDisk's earnings surprise announced after the market close and ample buying funds waiting on the sidelines. Recently, the domestic market has been dominated by FOMO (fear of missing out) among investors who missed the early-year rally, with new inflows of funds outweighing profit-taking. In particular, after the KOSPI surpassed the 5,000 mark, expectations that government policy focus will shift to the KOSDAQ have fueled a rise in the KOSDAQ, driven by financial investment demand, especially from individuals buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Meanwhile, the previous day, the Ministry of Planning and Budget announced a revision to the fund management evaluation guidelines, considering strengthening investment in the KOSDAQ. The revision includes mixing the KOSDAQ index at a 5% ratio into the fund evaluation benchmark, which had previously been based on the KOSPI index alone.

Lee Sunghoon, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Since the beginning of the year, the KOSDAQ's return (25.8%) has surpassed that of the KOSPI (23.9%). In the short term, the upward trend may continue due to policy expectations, supply-demand shifts for index alignment, and short covering of short sales. However, since the sharp rise is driven more by concentrated supply-demand rather than fundamentals, risk management should also be considered."