Military Casualties Surpass 2 Million... Nearly 500,000 Killed as Russia-Ukraine War Enters Fourth Year

Russian Advances Slow as Casualties Mount
Economic Pressures Intensify

Russia Ukraine Illustration. The Asia Business Daily DB

A study has found that the number of military casualties from both Russia and Ukraine in the war, now entering its fourth year, is nearing 2 million.

According to the New York Times and AFP on January 27 (local time), the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank, released these figures based on estimates from the U.S. and U.K. governments.

To date, Russian military casualties are estimated at a total of 1.2 million, including those killed, wounded, and missing. Of these, approximately 325,000 are believed to have been killed.

CSIS analyzed that Russian military casualties reached about 415,000 last year alone, averaging around 35,000 per month.

The total number of Ukrainian military casualties is estimated at around 600,000, with between 100,000 and 140,000 killed in action.

CSIS stated, "The total number of casualties for both Russian and Ukrainian forces could reach as high as 1.8 million and may approach 2 million by this spring. No major power has suffered such a high number of casualties in any war since World War II."

As the number of casualties has increased, CSIS pointed out that the pace of Russian advances has significantly slowed. Russia has maintained a numerical advantage over Ukraine by implementing conscription, deploying prisoners to the front lines, and even receiving troops from North Korea. However, it is believed that the monthly loss of tens of thousands of troops has inevitably slowed its advances.

The New York Times reported that in some areas, Russian forces are advancing only about 50 to 230 feet (approximately 15 to 70 meters) per day.

According to CSIS, since January 2024, Russia has only managed to capture an additional 1.5% of Ukrainian territory. Seth Jones, a defense expert at CSIS who led the study, pointed out that the war is also weighing heavily on the Russian economy. The conflict has led to a contraction in manufacturing, and last year’s economic growth rate slowed to 0.6%. Economic pressure is mounting due to the absence of globally competitive companies capable of driving long-term productivity.

Jones said, "Poor combat performance in Ukraine and declining economic productivity show that Russia is facing a serious period of decline as a major power. Although Russia still possesses nuclear weapons and a large military, it can no longer be considered a great power in military, economic, or scientific and technological terms."