[6.3 Local Elections]<18> "Individuals Over Parties"... Jeju’s Choice

A Region Where Independents Have Won Four Times
Democratic Party: Governor Younghun Oh Eyes Re-election
Moon Daerim, Wi Seonggon, Song Jaeho Also Mentioned
People Power Party: Moon Seongyu Announces Candidacy
Ko Gicheol, Kim Seungwook, Jang Se

The Jeju Special Self-Governing Province gubernatorial election is known for the strong performance of independent candidates, with independents winning four times out of the eight nationwide local elections held so far. There have also been three instances (Woo Keunmin, Kim Taehwan, and Won Heeryong) where politicians affiliated with the Democratic Party or the People Power Party left their parties, ran again as independents, and succeeded in being re-elected.

Characteristics of the Jeju Election

Since the 17th general election in 2004, Jeju has not elected a single member of the National Assembly from a People Power Party-affiliated candidate for over 20 years. While the Democratic Party has maintained a dominant position in general elections, the gubernatorial race in Jeju tells a different story. Traditionally, independents have shown remarkable strength, and conservative parties have also won twice. Voters have tended to focus more on individual candidates than on party affiliation. Former Governor Woo Keunmin was first elected as a candidate from the Democratic Party-affiliated parties (National Congress for New Politics, Millennium Democratic Party), but after losing his position due to a violation of the Public Official Election Act, he ran as an independent in the fifth local government election and succeeded in winning a third term. Former Governors Kim Taehwan and Won Heeryong were elected as candidates from the Grand National Party and Saenuri Party, respectively, but when seeking re-election, both ran as independents and succeeded in serving consecutive terms.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Within the Democratic Party, the most likely candidate is Oh Younghun, the current Governor of Jeju, who is expected to seek re-election. Other potential candidates include Assemblyman Moon Daerim, Assemblyman Wi Seongon, and former Assemblyman Song Jaeho. Yang Gilhyeon, former professor at Jeju National University, has also officially announced his candidacy. On the People Power Party side, Moon Seongyu, former Director General for Planning and Coordination at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, has expressed his intention to run. Other potential candidates include Ko Gicheol, Chairman of the Jeju Provincial Party, Kim Seunguk, Chairman of the Jeju City District Party Association, and Jang Seongcheol, former Chairman of the Jeju Provincial Party.

Public Opinion Poll Trends

As the structure of the Jeju gubernatorial race has not yet taken shape, there are few public opinion polls available to gauge the current landscape. The most notable reference is the KBS Jeju and Korea Research poll conducted ahead of last year's Chuseok holiday. At that time, Democratic Party Assemblyman Kim Hangyu received 19%, recording the highest level of support. However, Assemblyman Kim has since announced that he will not run. Among Democratic Party candidates, Governor Oh Younghun received 11%, while Assemblymen Moon Daerim and Wi Seongon each received 7%. On the People Power Party side, Chairman Ko Gicheol recorded 8%, and the remaining candidates showed low support levels of around 2-3%.

<Public Opinion Poll>

-Korea Research (commissioned by KBS Jeju, conducted a wireless phone interview with 800 male and female residents of Jeju aged 18 and older from September 29 to 30, 2023. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level). For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.