EU Unable to Resist Trump... Dependence on U.S. Natural Gas Surges Fivefold

EU Dependence on U.S. Gas Surges to 36%
Concerns Grow Over Trump’s Potential 'Weaponization of Energy'

Reuters Yonhap News

Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas has increased more than fivefold since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. As a result, the United States now supplies about 40% of Europe's total natural gas consumption. This is a consequence of measures taken to reduce energy dependence following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With expectations that reliance on the United States will continue to rise, there are growing concerns that if President Donald Trump weaponizes energy, Europe could face severe instability in its energy supply.

According to data compiled by Eurostat as of the fourth quarter of 2024, U.S. natural gas accounted for 36% of the European Union's imports, the highest share among all sources. The share of U.S. natural gas, which was only 7% until 2021, soared more than fivefold after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. In contrast, the share of Russian natural gas, which had reached 50% before the war, fell to 22%.

If sanctions against Russia are prolonged further, Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas is expected to exceed 50%. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S.-based think tank, stated in a recent report, "With the strengthening of sanctions against Russia, the share of Russian natural gas in Europe is expected to drop to the low teens," adding, "In the future, dependence on U.S. natural gas could exceed 50%, and the share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could rise to as much as 80%."

There are warnings both within and outside Europe that the share of U.S. natural gas is excessively high. The New York Times, citing experts, reported, "In the early stages of the war in Ukraine, European countries welcomed the increase in imports of U.S. natural gas. However, there are now concerns that dependence on the United States has become excessive," adding, "With natural gas production in European countries such as the United Kingdom and Norway continuing to decline, there are fears that the United States will come to dominate Europe's energy market in the future."

Concerns over Europe's gas supply stability are mounting as natural gas prices rise due to recent cold snaps in the United States. On January 26, the February futures price for U.S. natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) reached $6.80 per MMBtu (a U.S. gas heat unit), marking the highest level since December 2022. Due to the cold wave, U.S. natural gas production is also expected to fall by more than 10%. In this case, exports of gas to Europe could be reduced.

The European Union is striving to diversify its natural gas supply, but replacing U.S. natural gas remains difficult. CNBC reported, "Natural gas exporting countries are concentrated in a few regions, including the United States, Russia, the Middle East, and Africa. Most Middle Eastern supplies are exported to Asia, making it difficult for Europe to diversify its import sources," adding, "While countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar plan to increase production, significant growth in natural gas output is expected only from 2030, so it will not be easy to reduce the share of U.S. imports in the near term."

Some observers are increasingly concerned that as dependence on U.S. natural gas grows, a future Trump administration might use natural gas as a diplomatic weapon. There are warnings that unless Europe reduces its reliance on U.S. energy, it will be unable to withstand American diplomatic pressure. Politico, a U.S. political media outlet, quoted anonymous EU diplomats as saying, "Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas imports means a potentially high-risk geopolitical relationship," adding, "If President Trump attempts to annex Greenland or plans a military invasion in the future, the possibility that he could cut off gas supplies to Europe must also be considered."