EU Unable to Resist Trump... Dependence on U.S. Natural Gas Surges Fivefold

EU Dependence on U.S. Gas Surges to 36%
Concerns Grow Over Trump’s Potential 'Weaponization of Energy'

Reuters Yonhap News

Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas has increased more than fivefold since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. As a result, the United States now supplies 40% of Europe's total natural gas consumption. This shift is the outcome of efforts to reduce energy dependence in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With U.S. dependence expected to rise even further, there are growing concerns that if President Donald Trump weaponizes energy, Europe could face severe instability in its energy supply.

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, on January 26 (local time), the share of U.S. natural gas in the European Union's (EU) imports reached the highest level at 36% as of the fourth quarter of 2024. The proportion of U.S. natural gas, which was only 7% until 2021, soared more than fivefold after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. In contrast, Russian natural gas, which previously accounted for up to 50% of imports before the war, has dropped to 22%.

If sanctions against Russia are prolonged, Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas is expected to exceed 50%. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S.-based think tank, recently stated in a report, "As sanctions against Russia intensify, the share of Russian natural gas in Europe is expected to fall to the low teens," adding, "In the future, dependence on U.S. natural gas could exceed 50%, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could reach as high as 80%."

Both within and outside Europe, warnings are being raised that the share of U.S. natural gas is excessively high. The New York Times (NYT), citing experts, reported, "In the early stages of the war in Ukraine, European countries welcomed the increase in U.S. natural gas imports. However, recently, concerns have been raised that dependence on the U.S. has become excessive," adding, "With natural gas production in European countries such as the United Kingdom and Norway continuing to decline, there are worries that the U.S. could monopolize the European energy market in the future."

As recent cold snaps in the U.S. have pushed up natural gas prices, concerns over Europe's gas supply instability are also mounting. On January 26, the February delivery futures price for U.S. natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) reached $6.80 per MMBtu (a U.S. gas heat unit), the highest since December 2022. Due to the cold weather, U.S. domestic natural gas production is also expected to drop by more than 10%. In this case, there is a possibility that gas exports to Europe could be reduced.

The EU is striving to diversify its natural gas supply, but replacing U.S. natural gas remains difficult. CNBC reported, "Natural gas exporting countries are concentrated in a few places, including the U.S., Russia, the Middle East, and Africa. Most Middle Eastern supply is exported to Asia, making it difficult for Europe to diversify its import sources," adding, "Although the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar plan to increase production, significant growth in natural gas output is expected only from 2030, so it will not be easy to reduce the share of U.S. imports in the near term."

Some observers are increasingly concerned that as dependence on U.S. natural gas rises, a future Trump administration could use natural gas as a diplomatic weapon. There are warnings that unless Europe reduces its reliance on U.S. energy, it will not be able to withstand American diplomatic pressure. Politico, a U.S. political media outlet, quoted EU diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity, saying, "Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas imports means a potentially high-risk geopolitical relationship," and added, "If President Trump attempts to annex Greenland or plans a military invasion, the possibility that he could halt gas supplies to Europe must be considered."