Betting Against Musk's Remarks Yields Tens of Thousands in Profits... Prediction Markets Gain Popularity in the US

Prediction Investing Spreads Over Musk's Declarations
"Musk Creates New Headlines Every Day"

Prediction investing, where people bet on whether Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, will actually follow through on his bold statements and actions, is gaining popularity among investors.

On January 26 (local time), the U.S.-based prediction market platform Polymarket featured a variety of Musk-related topics, such as "Will Musk acquire Ryanair (Europe's largest low-cost airline)?", "Will Musk become a trillionaire before 2027?", "Will Musk win his lawsuit against Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI)?", and "Will Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?" Users of the site place bets on either agreeing or disagreeing with these questions, and if their predictions are correct, they receive payouts based on the odds set by the market.

The most recent topic, "Will Musk acquire Ryanair?", emerged after Musk reacted sharply to public criticism from Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, posting on X (formerly Twitter), "How much would it cost to acquire Ryanair?" and similar comments. Currently, more than $2 million (about 2.89 billion won) has been wagered on this topic, but the probability of acquisition is estimated at only around 4%.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla. Photo by AP Yonhap News

NBC News recently reported that more investors are profiting by betting against Musk's statements. The analysis is that Musk's history of making exaggerated claims for years on social media, podcasts, and during Tesla earnings announcements has fueled the popularity of "counter-prediction" investing. NBC commented, "As prediction markets gain popularity, the accuracy of Musk's bluster is being tested in real time."

David Bensoussan, one of the participants, ranked 51st in Polymarket's cumulative earnings as of January 23 by participating in Musk-related prediction markets. Last summer, amid a conflict between Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump, he reportedly bet about $10,000 (about 15 million won) that Musk would not form a new political party, earning a 10% return.

Bensoussan has participated in 12 Musk- or Tesla-related prediction markets and has so far earned over $36,000 (about 52 million won) in profits. He said he is not a fan of Musk, adding, "Since there is a dedicated fan base, I'm happy to bet if I can make even a little profit from them."

Both Polymarket and another prediction platform, Kalshi, have dedicated staff to manage new prediction topics, but they stated that topic ideas often come from user suggestions. Coleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University who studies prediction markets, explained, "Prediction markets are highly responsive to issues that are constantly in the news, and Elon Musk is someone who creates new headlines almost every day."