Trump Moves to Counter China... Recognizing the Expanded Carrier Fleet [Yang Nakkyu's Defence Club]

China Builds Aircraft Carriers for Island Chain Strategy
Defensive Posture Within 1,000 km of Taiwan Strait

China's first aircraft carrier, Liaoning

As the second Trump administration moves to actively counter China, attention is focusing on China's maritime power. This is due to resistance against China's "island chain strategy," with the U.S. even declaring its intention to "establish a strong denial-based defense."

The recently announced new National Defense Strategy (NDS) aims to achieve a "decent peace" with China-one that is advantageous to the United States but also acceptable and coexistent for China, amid ongoing rivalry for hegemony. The core of the strategy is "not confrontation, but deterring China in the Indo-Pacific through strength." The U.S. is pursuing "deterrence by denial," a posture designed to convince adversaries that any attack would be futile. This means not allowing or accepting an enemy's attack. The NDS is the top-level defense strategy document that the U.S. Department of Defense submits to Congress every four years, outlining the direction of military policy and defense operations.

China's Island Chain Strategy: Aiming to Dominate the Pacific by 2040

At the core of the Trump administration's efforts to counter China lies the island chain strategy. This strategy involves connecting islands into a chain to form a maritime defense perimeter, with the aim of absorbing the world into China's operational sphere. In 2010, China secured maritime control over the first island chain, stretching from Okinawa to Taiwan and the South China Sea. By 2020, it expanded to the second island chain (Saipan-Guam-Indonesia), and it has set a strategy to block U.S. Navy dominance in the Pacific and Indian Oceans by 2040.

To implement the island chain strategy, China has expanded its aircraft carrier fleet, now having completed its third carrier. According to Chinese military regulations, major warships are named after directly governed cities or provinces. The first carrier is the Liaoning, the second is the Shandong, and notably, the third is named Fujian-home to the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army. Since the launch of the Liaoning in 2011, China has launched its third carrier in just 11 years. By 2030, China is expected to possess at least four carrier strike groups. The goal is to build a naval force capable of preventing U.S. carrier strike groups from coming within 1,000 kilometers of the Taiwan Strait. While China's carrier power still lags behind the U.S., which operates 11 carriers, it is expected to become a core force for blocking U.S. and allied access in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.

China Builds Three Carriers and Begins Full-Scale Naval Drills

As China expands its carrier fleet, it has also begun full-scale training. After conducting its first "dual carrier" show of force in the South China Sea in 2024, last year the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups held their first joint blue-water exercises in the Western Pacific. The Liaoning was even detected inside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), beyond the second island chain. This came just one year after the Shandong broke through the first island chain for the first time in July 2024.

The launching ceremony of China's third aircraft carrier, the "Fujian," is being held at the Jiangnan Shipyard near Shanghai, China, in June 2022. The Fujian, powered by diesel propulsion, is China's first domestically designed and built catapult-type aircraft carrier, with a displacement of approximately 80,000 tons. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

If the third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is deployed, the island chain strategy will become even more pronounced. With the advent of the "three-carrier era," China is expected to expand its military influence beyond the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, reaching into the Pacific. The Fujian has a full-load displacement of approximately 80,000 tons. While smaller than U.S. carriers, which are around 100,000 tons, it represents a significant increase in size compared to China's current carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, which are each around 60,000 tons.

Fujian: Designed with Indigenous Chinese Technology

Unlike previous carriers, the Fujian was designed using indigenous Chinese technology. In particular, it features a domestically developed electromagnetic catapult (a device that assists aircraft in taking off) on its flat flight deck. Compared to earlier Chinese carriers, which used ski-jump ramps, the Fujian can launch more heavily armed aircraft at shorter intervals. However, it is known to use diesel propulsion rather than nuclear power. The Fujian is expected to enter service in 2024 after trial operations. Nonetheless, military experts believe it will take several more years to achieve full combat capability, as it must still undergo sea trials, weapons and radar installation, and crew training.

U.S. Naval Power Nowhere Near China's

In contrast, the U.S. Navy's power has been weakening. The U.S. Navy has publicly disclosed delays in major shipbuilding programs in its reports. The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, jointly built by General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries, has been delayed by 12 to 16 months. The fourth and fifth blocks of the Virginia-class submarine are also delayed by 36 months and 24 months, respectively. The same is true for the ocean surveillance ships being built by Austal USA and the amphibious ships by Huntington Ingalls Industries. Statistics show that about 40% of U.S. submarines are either under repair or awaiting maintenance.

The weakening of U.S. naval power dates back to the Barack Obama administration. The Obama administration attempted to reduce the fleet from 282 ships to 260, but due to strong opposition from the Navy, only seven ships were cut. When Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, he pledged to expand the U.S. Navy to a 350-ship fleet and built 21 ships during his four-year term. However, the goal of a 350-ship fleet was ultimately not achieved. Under the Biden administration, five ships have been decommissioned, reducing the fleet to its current 291 ships.